Don't Get Too Complacent Just Yet.
Table of Contents:
1) What a difference a week makes, but the stock market is far from being out of the woods.
2) No matter what happens with the Fed next week, the Treasury market is getting ripe for a pullback.
3) The fact that we’re not seeing any big “shock” right now…tell us nothing about the timing of the next recession.
4) The seeds of the next recession have already been sown…in the same way they have been in the past.
5) Index chart update: The next two weeks should be crucial.
6) The yen is approaching an overbought level, so it could pullback at some point in the near future.
7) We got several piece of bad news from the financial sector last week…and too many people are complacent about it.
8) The consumer staple sector is expensive…and it’s getting very overbought.
9) Potpourri….The Treasury market is not the only bond market that is getting overbought.
10) Politics….Interesting insights from our DC insider!
11) Summary of our current stance….We worry that the stock market IS the economy today.