• Much like we thought it would, France’s budget problems are becoming a significant problem.

• The Fed is engaging in their usual “Good cop/Bad cop” routine.

• Several important areas of the marketplace are becoming oversold, but their longer-term trends remain concerning.

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I will be traveling over the next few days, so I won’t be publishing again until Friday. With this in mind, we wanted to send out a very quick “Evening Comment” today. We will be back publishing Friday morning…and our weekend piece will come out at its regularly scheduled time..…….Thank you.

• The Treasury market is getting oversold and over-hated on a near-term basis again.

• Credit spreads are starting to widen out…so they need to be monitored.

• To reiterate, the stock market pretty much always ignores a quick/sharp in rise in yields…until it doesn’t.

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• The focus this week will be on the bond market this week…as earnings seasons is still a couple of weeks away. So, oil prices…and this week’s plethora of economic data will be the focus.

• That said, a small number of tech stocks are the key for the stock market over the near-term. Whether they can continue to hold up or not will continue to be extremely important.

• China’s stock market is breaking a key support level. So, if it doesn’t bounce back quickly, it will raise a warning flag on that market.

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After a weekend of thrilling conclusions to many football games in college and the NFL…and the same in the Presidents Cup Golf Tournament…the markets are looking like they’ll see a lot of excitement this week as well. Since earnings season is still a couple of weeks away, the focus this week will be on economic data this week. We get the Core PCE inflation data on Wednesday…and we get several different readings on employment…with the biggest one coming on Friday (when the BLS reports their numbers on this issue)………On top of all this, we also have the geopolitical issues…and the moves in the price of oil.

On this latter issue, crude oil is up about 3% this morning. This is actually lower than it was overnight…as the announcement that the Saudi East-West pipeline has reopened has helped the price of crude all come down a little bit. However, the 3% rise that still exists as we write has still been enough to push the yield on the US 10-year note higher (above 5.2%)…and weigh on the equity futures in a material way.

That said, those stock futures are not falling out of bed. The S&P futures are down 0.4%, and the NDX futures are down 0.6%...so it’s not like we’re looking at melt down this morning. Besides, these two indices are both less than 1% from their all-time highs…so as much as the bond market has been in the middle of a horrible bear market this year, the stock market has been able to ignore it quite nicely.

The problem is that history shows that this cannot go on forever. As we have highlighted ad nauseam in recent weeks, every time we see the kind of rise in long-term yields that we’ve seen over the past year, it has always led to a significant decline in the stock market eventually…..Since this is something that more people on Wall Street are finally talking about, it could be something that impacts the stock market sooner rather than later. Given that earnings season doesn’t begin for a couple of more weeks, these higher yields should provide at least SOME headwinds this week.

We do need to point out that the Treasury market is getting oversold (overbought on yields)…and the same is true for the several other fixed income related ETF’s (like the HYG high yield ETF, and the LQD investment grade corporate bond ETF). However, since the movement in those markets seems to be so closely tied to the price of oil right now, they might not get much relief from their oversold conditions. As much as the Administration will likely spend a lot of time highlighting the existing of worthwhile “talks” between now and the midterm election, it does not look like anything significant will take place. As long as Iran insists on having control of the Strait of Hormuz, any dip in oil prices will likely be quite short-lived.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee that the eventual (inevitable?) impact of higher yields on the stock market will take place very soon. The stock market has been able to hold up quite nicely for several months in the fact of these rising yields…so they could continue to do so for a while longer. Besides, the midterm election is still 5 weeks away…and the Administration will want to keep the market buoyed until that time. Therefore, investors will want to remain very nimble over the near-term…but this week’s economic data should be even more important for the markets than usual.

Put another way, as much as the bond market should have a very important impact on the stock market eventually…the tech sector will continue to be extremely important for the near-term prospects for the stock market. Thus, we will continue to keep a close eye on the XLK technology ETF…as well as the SOX semiconductor index. As we highlighted in our weekend piece, both of these are not far from key resistance levels. So, if they can push higher between now and the midterms, the stock market should still be fine…at least for now. Let’s face it, if the past couple of weeks are any indication, we only need a handful of names to push higher (AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, AMD & TSM.) …in order for the key indices to remain elevated. If, however, these few stocks DO start to see any material weakness, things will get quite dicey…quite quickly.

Finally, we just want to update the chart from our weekend piece on China’s stock market. Their CSI 300 Index fell 2.2% last night…and took it below the key support level we had highlighted this weekend. This is definitely a negative development for their stock market on a technical basis. Yes, it will take a bit more downside follow-through to confirm the breakdown…and this index is getting oversold. However, any further weakness in this market as we move into the month of October will definitely raise some big warning flag on China’s stock market. (Chart below.)

I was interviewed this morning on CNBC’s “Morning Call” show with Morgan Brennan…..You can click on the link below to check it out!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lM0W-mM8nSCgrRCBD2pAjMK2f-hMEusC/view?usp=sharing

• The stock market continues to ignore the significant rise in both long-term yields and crude oil prices. However, history tells us that this is something that will eventually have a meaningfully negative impact on equities.

• Natural gas rallied strongly yesterday. We highlight the resistance levels to be watching going forward…which, if broken, would signal a key breakout. We also highlight one stock which would benefit quite nicely if this commodity does indeed breakout.

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What started out as a rough day in the markets yesterday…got some relief on reports that the US and Iran are discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the blockade. This helped oil decline and long-term yields pullback as well. This change in direction in those two markets did not last very long…as crude oil bounced back…and bond yields pushed back to their highest level of this cycle. In fact, the yield on the 10yr note closed at its highest level since 2007…and the 30yr finished the day at its highest level since 2004.

However, the stock market was able to maintain its bounce…and although it finished the day pretty much unchanged, it was still able to fight off these moves in the fixed income and commodity markets…and avoid a revisit of the morning lows. In other words, the stock market continues to brush off the outsized rise in both long-term yields and energy prices. So, when you combine this…with the fact that S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 are still within a whisker of their all-time highs…it is giving investors a lot of confidence.

The problem is that this is what always happens when yields rise in a significant way. Investors are always able to ignore this rise for a period of time. In fact, that “period of time” usually lasts many, many months. That was the case in 1987, 2000, 2007, 2018, 2020, and 2022…but each time, the stock market eventually took notice…and decline in a significant way.

This is a theme we have been highlighting for a while now, but since yields are pushing even higher, we think it’s important to reiterate these concerns. This is especially true given that that there are so many other developments that are taking place right now…which tend to show up as the stock market is forming a top of some importance. As we highlighted yesterday, the high yield market continues to deteriorate…and the HYG high yield ETF fell in a material way once again yesterday. (This is another area where the stock market tends to ignore a negative move for a while…but it eventually (pretty much always) has a negative impact.)……When you pile on top of this, high valuations…a very narrow rally…a divergence between the S&P 500 and the chip stocks…and major geopolitical uncertainties…the thought that a further rally of significance over the coming months is getting harder to justify.

We’ll have a lot more in our weekend piece, but we wanted to highlight the very large rally in natural gas yesterday. This commodity jumped more than 9%...which took it out of the sideways range it had been in for the past 6-7 weeks. The main reason for this move was a short squeeze…following a force majeure notice issued by TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission pipeline in Appalachia…after a natural gas leak was detected at the Saunders Creek Regulator station in West Virginia. However, tight inventories in Europe…supply cuts from Norway…and lowered gas production and export forecasts from Russia…are reasons to think that this rally could see some more momentum as we head into the winter heating months in Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere.

What we’ll be watching is to see if natural gas can push above its 200-DMA in a significant way. That moving average provided very tough resistance back in June and early July. So, if it can break above that line…which would also give it another key “higher-high”…it will signal an important breakout move. (First chart below.)

If (repeat, if) that happens, there are a few stocks which should benefit quite nicely. One of them is EQT Corp (EQT). They are well positioned as the lowest cost, largest-scale US gas producer at a moment of accelerating demand (LNG, power, data centers)…and they also have a deleveraging program which should be able to unlock significant capital returns…especially if nat gas does indeed move higher this winter……On the technical side of things, the stock is coming off a very oversold level after making a nice “higher-low”……We do admit that the stock will have to regain its trend-line from last year to confirm a breakout has taken place…but if natural gas can indeed breakout, EQT should follow very quickly. (Second chart below.)

• The stock market has been able to ignore the substantial rise in oil prices and in bond yields so far. However, stocks have been able to do that in past…only to see a significant decline eventually. With the rise in Treasury yields now taking them to multi-decade highs, this “eventual impact” on stocks could be sooner than most investors realize right now.

• It’s not just the Treasury market that is creating problems. The high yield market is falling in the same kind of substantial manner that has been followed by very rough patches in the stock market as well…..…Like it is with the relationship between stocks and Treasuries/oil prices, a decline in high yield prices doesn’t matter…until it does. And when it does, it’s significant.

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It was a bit of a rough day for the stock market yesterday…and the renewed rise in long-term interest rates pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5%. In fact, the move pushed that yield above 5.1%...it’s highest level of this cycle…and the highest level since the summer of 2007 (just before the Great Financial Crisis). Part of the big jump in yields was due to some more “Fed speak”…as Fed Governor Michael Barr said that more tightening is likely needed to return inflation to target…and some of the move also had to do with the poor reception of the 5-year auction early in the afternoon…….Finally, the almost 4% rebound in crude oil…which took Brent back up above $100…had an impact as well.

The stock market decline was relatively broad…as 10 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in negative territory. (Only the energy sector finished in the green.) That said, the breadth for the major averages (the advancers vs. the decliners) was not overwhelming at all. It was 2 to 1 negative for the S&P 500…and 3 to 2 negative for the NDX 100…and those are far from extremes given the size of yesterday’s declines. Therefore, since the SPX & NDX still stand very near their all-time record highs, we’re going to have to see quite a bit more weakness before this action creates much fear for investors.

However, with the action in the fixed income market over the past several months, it’s not out of the question that things could turn south rather quickly. We should remember that the initial declines in 2000, 2007, and 2020 were extremely quick…and extremely sharp. All three of those examples came after very strong rise in crude oil prices…and a similarly forceful rise in long-term yields. In each case, the stock market was able to ignore these moves for many months…but in all three cases, the eventual reaction in the stock market was a very rough one.

One issue when it comes to the fixed income market that few people are focused on right now is the high yield market. The HYG high yield ETF got hit hard yesterday…and this gave it the kind of decline that should be raising A LOT more warning flags than it is right now……History tells us that when a divergence develops between the stock market and the high yield market…which involves some significant underperformance from high yield…the stock market pretty much always experiences a substantial set back.

The divergence that has developed between these two markets has actually been going on for a long time. This is something we’ve written about several times in recent months, but after yesterday’s significant (further) drop in the HYG high yield ETF, we wanted to reiterated this situation again this morning……As you can see from the first chart below, as the S&P has made a series of new record highs since last October, the HYG has made a long string of “lower-highs.” So, there is a definite divergence developing…….We’d also note that has made two key “lower-lows” over that time frame. The first one took place in March…just as the stock market was rolling over…and the second one was this week. So, this week’s action could be something that will signal a period of material weakness in the stock market once again.

Looking at the second chart below, it compares the SPX with the HYG over the past few years. As you can see, the “directional correlation” is a very strong one. (In other words, the moves are sometimes bigger in one market or the other, but the “directional” moves are very strong.) However, you can also see that the HYG has declined in a very meaningful way recently…while the SPX has tested its June highs. So, unless the high yield market bounces back VERY quickly/strongly…it’s a good beet that the stock market will follow it lower before long…at least if history is any guide.

The one-day summit between President Trump and President Xi takes place today, so there could be some sort of an announcement that might keep stocks buoyed a little longer. However, it’s going to have to involved something more than just a 2-month extension on the tariff truce……Next week, we get a flurry of economic data, so that could have an impact as well………..However, if the action in the entire fixed income continues on the path it is right now, it’s going to create some real headwinds for equities…and those headwinds might be stronger than most investors are thinking right now.

• The tech stocks were able to continue to push higher yesterday (after Monday’s very large advance), so the upside momentum for this key leadership group remains intact.

• As we thought they would, the energy stocks have seen a material short-term pullback, but the group is quickly looking quite enticing once again (already).

• The weakness we in the bank stocks we highlighted a month ago has continued…and they are now testing a very important support level.

The stock market was able to digest its strong gains from Monday quite well yesterday…as the S&P 500 finished the day flat…and the NDX Nasdaq 100 pushed slightly higher. Even though the further advance in the NDX was relatively mild, it was enough to give it a new record high (to go along with the record that was set for the Nasdaq Composite on Monday). This means that the tech stocks moved higher once again…with the SOX semiconductor index rising 2%. So, the upside momentum for this key leadership group remains intact.

The further weakness in crude oil continues to get a lot of credit for the recent pop in the stock market. WTI crude has declined by 15% since September 15^th, so our call back then…which said that crude oil has become very overbought…and that sentiment had become extremely bullish…and thus this commodity was ripe for a pullback…has worked out extremely well. Therefore, the call that we made to pullback from the energy stocks just over a week ago has also been a good one…with the XLE and XOP energy stock ETFs giving back 8%-9% over that time.

Okay, now that we’ve dislocated our shoulders patting ourselves on the back…where do we stand now? Well, the overbought and over-loved conditions have been worked off…and we definitely continue to like this group on a longer-term basis. Therefore, this sector is looking much more enticing once again. Of course, we could still see some more weakness in the group as it digests its recent decline, but we believe it is safe to start nibbling away on these stocks once again.

With the situation with both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea being a constrained one…and the Saudi East-West Pipeline vulnerable to more attacks even if it reopens soon…the supply constraints remain a problem. Besides, given our longer-term bullish stance on hard assets…due to our concerns about national debts and currency dilution, we believe that a “buy the dip” mentality should be maintained for this sector…and this most recent dip should provide a good opportunity once again.

Switching gears, the bank stocks got hit hard again yesterday. This is another issue that we raised a few weeks ago…starting with comments in our weekend piece back on August 22^nd…and then again in one of our daily pieces on September 15^th. The decline has accelerated more recently…this has taken the KBE bank ETF down to a key support level…and any further drop will raise some warning flags on this key group.

The reasons for the recent weakness involve several issues. First, the warnings from BofA that Q3 trading revenue will be flat and that investment banking fees will fall at least 10% raised fears that the extraordinary strength in capital-markets businesses is beginning to normalize…and that other banks could face some similar pressure. Also, the fact that IPOs for Open AI and Anthropic (and several others) have been delayed has also lowered expectations on this front.

At the same time, the significantly flattening of the yield curve over the past few weeks is creating concern about pressure on net interest margins…which had already declined earlier this year. Finally, there is now a new issue: investors are beginning to wonder whether advances in AI…particularly in personal finance, investment advice and financial services…could ultimately disrupt bank business models…rather than make them more efficient…….This combination of weaker capital markets expectations, potential NIM pressure…and uncertainty about AI’s longer-term impact has clearly weighed on this group.

Moving back to the technical picture, we want to be more specific about the “key support” levels we alluded to above. Looking at the weekly chart on the KBE bank ETF, you can see that it has already seen a compelling negative MACD cross…and it is now testing its trend-line from March. Therefore, if it falls much further as we move through rest of September and into October, it’s going to raise some warning flags for the banking group on a technical basis. (First chart below.)……We’d also note that the same is true for the European banks…as the STOXX 600 Banks Index is testing its own key support level. (Second chart below.)……Given how important these groups are to their respective economies; it’s something investors should be watching quite closely in the days and weeks ahead.

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• A combination of lower oil prices, excess liquidity, and (especially) a strong rally in the tech sector…helped the S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 close very near their record highs…….Even though there are many factors impacting the stock market right now, whether the tech sector can continue to advance or not…should continue to be the most important factor in determining the direction for equities over the next few weeks…the next few months…and beyond.

The stock market saw a very strong rally yesterday….as oil prices fell…and a strong rally in Meta (META) helped the tech sector advance in a meaningful way. The rally came on average volume….and breadth that was quite poor. In fact, it was only 3 to 2 positive on the S&P 500 index…which is in not good at all for a day when the index rallied 1.5%. We’d also note that the number of S&P 500 stocks which hit a 52-week high was only 7…which is extremely low given that the index closed just 0.44% below its all-time high…….…In other words, it was a remarkably narrow rally yesterday.

Having said this, the rally in the tech sector was a very strong one. It was enough to push the MAGS (Mag 7 ETF) above the key resistance level we highlighted in our weekend piece…and (more importantly) to a new record. It also helped the SOX semiconductor index push bac above its 100-DMA…which has been a very important level for the chip stocks this year……That move was not a meaningful breakout for the SOX, so it’s going to have to see more upside follow-through to send out a bullish signal for this group, but the recent 11% rally has definitely been a good one.

The main reason for the advance in the tech sector was the continued success of Meta’s (META) new Muse AI agent….which has received rave reviews…and has quickly climbed to the number one most downloaded app in the US. This helped META rally 11% yesterday…which means the stock has advanced a whopping 36% over the past month or so. This, in turn, has raised the energy surrounding the idea that demand for the chips need to power these agents will remain high. Therefore, it helped the hyperscalers AND the chips stocks rally in tandem yesterday in a material way.

Of course, the drop in the price of oil…which took Brent crude down to $100 (and below that level this morning) helped the market as well. However, this move in crude has only produced a mild drop in long-term Treasury yields (with the 10yr yield still above 4.9%). So, it seems like that move in the tech sector was the key catalyst in yesterday’s stock market gain………We’d also note that the outsized rally in Bitcoin in all probability signaled that some excess liquidity was being provided as well. So, this excess liquidity (in front of the Trump/Xi summit) likely helped yesterday’s advance as well.

As for the major averages, as we highlighted above, the S&P 500 closed just 0.44% below its all-time high from August…and the NDX Nasdaq 100 closed jut 0.58% below its June record high…(and the Nasdaq Composite DID close at new record)……The Russell 2000 remains more than 6% below its August record…and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index finished the day 4.4% below its own record high. (So, this is another example of how narrow this most recent rally has been.) However, since most of the rally over the past three years has been very narrow, it might not be a major hindrance for the equity market at this time either.

Put another way, if the entire tech sector as a whole can advance to the degree it has over the past 3-4 trading days, it should help the entire market make new highs between now and the midterm election.

This is why we positioned those tech charts so early in our most recent weekend piece. (We have updated the charts on the SOX and MAGS below.) As much as everyone keeps trying to keep talking about other areas of the stock market, the tech sector is what will continue to drive it…one way or the other…for the foreseeable future. Therefore, whether the MAGS can hold onto these recent gains…and (especially) whether the chip stocks can regain some significant upside momentum…should be the key as to how the stock market acts over the rest of this year (and beyond).

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• A drop in crude oil prices…and anticipation of the Trump/Xi Summit…have the stock futures trading higher this morning.

• Wil the market be able to hold up after the summit…with so many different developments taking place at the same time…which usually signal a top of at least some importance is just around the corner?

• Bitcoin is seeing a technical breakout….So, unless it reverses lower quickly and meaningfully, this should be very bullish for the entire crypto asset class.

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The stock market was able to bounce off their lows on Friday…with a particular surge over the last half hour of trading. However, since there was no new-news, it seemed to be more related to the “quadruple witch” expiration than anything else. That said, the futures are trading higher this morning…with a 2% drop in crude oil prices and a mild pullback in long-term Treasury yields.

We also have the summit between President Trump and China’s President Xi on Thursday. Given that there is very little in terms of either economic data or earnings reports, the focus will be on geopolitical issues this week. Since the Administration wants a successful summit, it’s a good bet that most of the news will be positive on this issue over the next few days…....The question then will be whether the summit produces any long-term positive deals…but until then, the rhetoric coming out of Washington should be positive on this front.

Our concern is that once we get past the summit, the focus will return to the issues which have kept the stock market from rallying any further over the past 3-4 months. That’s right, even though this past earnings season was an excellent one, the S&P 500 has barely risen at all since early June…and both the NDX Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 have both actually declined slightly since then! So, although it may seem like the strong rally off the late-March lows has continued, that has not been the case.

The reason that we worry about what might take place as we move through the rest of September and into October is that so many things are coming together right now…that are usually a sign that a top of some importance is looming before too long. As we mentioned in our weekend piece, it’s one thing when just a couple of those developments are taking place…like high valuations and a narrow advance (which we have seen for a long time now). However, when a small number of those kinds of developments…turns into a situation where a half dozen or more of these issues taking place all at once…it becomes a much bigger concern.

Therefore, since we can now add to the list that long-term yields have risen in a significant way…and that oil prices have done the same…it boosts our level apprehension. (The stock frequently ignores a significant rise in yields and oil prices for many months, but they pretty much always respond in a negative way eventually to these developments…going back over the past 50 years.)

Then we have the divergence between the stock market…which has held up…and the chip stocks…which are more than 18% below their June lows……There is also a divergence between the S&P 500 and the HYG high yield market…which has been falling steadily this year (and has accelerated lower in September). These two divergences have been clear signs of a pending top of at least some importance many times in the past. Thus, there are developments which raise some warning flags in our minds……..When you throw on top of this…the substantial geopolitical uncertainties that exits today…from several different parts of the world (not just the Middle East and Ukraine)…it’s something that should raise more concerns than it has in recent months in our opinion.

This does not mean that the market is going to roll over in a meaningful way as soon as this week’s summit comes to an end. The stock market could hold up through the election…or even past the end of the year. Let’s face it, earnings season is only a few weeks away…and if earnings estimates continue to rise in the kind of parabolic way they have over the past few months…the market could be buoyed through the end of the year. However, given that so many different signals are popping up today, we think it will be tough to avoid a pullback of some significance…starting before the year is over.

Switching gears, we want to highlight that Bitcoin has broken above its key resistance level of $82,000 this morning. In fact, it is trading above $84k as we write!.....Needless to say, we’re going to have to see this cryptocurrency hold above this level for more than a day or two…and push a bit higher as well…to confirm that a breakout has taken place, but this morning’s move is definitely a bullish one!

Remember, after falling significantly (and steadily) from its Q4 highs of last year…into the early summer months…this crypto built a nice “base” over many weeks. Then, it late August, it broke above its 200-DMA (which had provided VERY tough resistance in May)…and that also took it above its trend-line from its all-time highs (in October of last year)……Bitcoin then became overbought in late-August…and spent a couple of weeks engaging in a “sideways correction.” However, now that the overbought condition has been worked off, the ensuing move has been very bullish.

Put another way, not only has Bitcoin broken above its May highs of $82k (giving it a key “higher-high”), but it has also seen a “golden cross” (with a rising 50-DMA…crossing above a rising 200-DMA)…….Bitcoin has seen a “golden cross” in each of the past three years…and it was followed by a significant further advance in each case. Therefore, this morning’s move should be seen as a very, very bullish development for Bitcoin…and the crypto asset class. (Chart below.)

Again, we do have to be careful. This breakout needs to avoid a quick reversal (a head fake). We always have to see a breakout sustain itself for a few days…and see some follow through as well…to give us the confirmation we need to become confident of the move. However, given the “set up” we’ve seen over the past few months, the odds are good that this breakout will indeed hold.

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• The stock market’s action yesterday was quite impressive…given that it faced headwinds from several different areas. Can that continue to hold up?

• The rotation within the tech sector is helping keep the market from seeing further meaningful weakness.

• The warning out of BAC yesterday follows some weakness that was already occurring in the bank group. If this is something that spreads at all, it’s going to raise some real warning flags.

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• The bond market is getting very oversold (overbought in terms of yield)…and crude oil is also getting very overbought….Sentiment for both is reaching extreme levels as well……So, they’re both getting ripe for some sort of reversal…even if it’s only over the near-term.

• We’ll be flying our flag in remembrance today.

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• Who schedules these US Open tennis matches???

• More “jawboning” from Secretary Bessent…but this time, he (and Japan) has more ammunition…so investors should take heed.

• The DXY dollar Index is on the cusp of confirming a new leg to the bear market in the greenback that began early last year.

• The University of Michigan should follow Cornell University’s lead.

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• Jawboning the bond market has not worked. This does not mean that the plan to buy more Treasuries won’t help the fixed income market to some degree, but it is raising questions about whether some of the stop gap plans that have been implemented since the GFC are losing their effectiveness.

• We understand why many investors feel the need to “keep dancing”…but we also believe that they should consider buying some cheap insurance against a decline as we move into hurricane season…because that insurance can frequently become very expensive, very quickly.

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