Merely Avoiding a Recession Will Not Be Enough to Keep the Stock Market Elevated For Long
Our first bullet point is a bit longer than usual. However, we believe it is extremely important to consider when thinking about the markets over the rest of 2024 and 2025, so we have not shortened it. That said, we have designated them as both 1 & 2…to keep the full piece from being too long. Thank you very much.
Table of Contents:
1&2) The stock market is NOT pricing in a “soft landing.” It’s pricing in a very strong economy!
3) As we thought, the “rotation” everybody was hoping for does not work when tech is getting hit.
4) Unless bond yields reverse immediately, the outlook for most fixed income assets is VERY bright.
5) Update on the charts for the major indices. It’s not a pretty picture.
6) China’s stock market seems to be saying that their economy will take a long time to recover.
7) The aerospace/defense sector is getting overbought near-term, but it still looks great longer-term.
8) Why the action in Bitcoin going forward could/should be important to many risk assets.
9) Potpourri….The real issues in the Middle East.
10) Summary of our current stance.