We are traveling this weekend to spend time with our son and his wife before the holiday.  (They’re spending the actual holiday with her family this year…after spending Thanksgiving with us!)  We just want people to know that this weekend’s piece was written Friday night.  Therefore, if something big develops on Saturday or Sunday, some of what we’ve written might sound out of place.  We just want people to understand why something might seem out of place if they don’t read this weekend’s piece until Sunday evening………Also, given that Christmas fall on a Sunday this year, we will be writing next weekend’s edition on Friday night as well.  It will likely be a much shorter version than usual……Thank you very much!


Table of Contents:

1)  If the Fed has to pivot earlier than they’re saying now, the stock market will be much lower when they do.

2)  The fact that the stress level in the credit markets is not high…is actually bearish for stocks today!

3)  Just because something is widely anticipated…does not mean that it has already been priced-in.

4)  The S&P 500 broke some key support levels last week.  It needs to bounce back VERY quickly.

5)  The same is true for the NDX 100 and the Russell 2000.

6)  The recent underperformance of the NDX and the Russell = the lows are not in yet.

7)  The chip stocks rolled over, but they’re still clinging to their key support level.

8)  Long-term interest rates should head lower again soon, but that’s negative for stocks.

9)  We’ll be keeping close eye on China’s stock market for clues about global growth in 2023.

10)  Summary of our current stance….The Fed really has TWO key goals with their tightening policy!

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