Sep 27, 2023
The S&P is oversold short-term, but it’s not even remotely oversold on an intermediate-term basis…and the divergence between the bond & stock market is still a VERY large one. Thus, any mild decline in bond yields is not going to help the stock market for very long.
Sep 26, 2023
In our July pieces, we showed how whenever an inverted yield curve moved back into positive territory over the past 50 years, it was actually a very BAD time for the stock market.
Sep 25, 2023
The stock market is getting somewhat oversold, but it still has further to go before it reaches the kind of level we’ve seen at important lows of the past five years. So, although it could see very short-term bounces at any time, we think the stock market has further to fall.
Sep 24, 2023
The most important issue facing the markets is the divergence between the bond & stock markets. History tells us it will be resolved with a decline in stocks.
Sep 22, 2023
Remember declines that take place in the fall usually bottom in October. So don’t fear this decline. Instead, embrace it…and look for an opportunity to take advantage of it if/when we get a “capitulation” move.
Sep 21, 2023
The most important development of the past six months has been the WIDE divergence between the bond & stock markets. With investors coming to believe that the “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates is for real, the divergence will be resolved with a drop in stock prices.
Sep 20, 2023
Unless the Fed strikes a surprisingly dovish tone, their “higher-for-longer” narrative will remain in place. The bond market has been pricing this in for months, but the stock market has not. This divergence should resolve itself very soon.
Sep 19, 2023
The answer to which way the stock market breaks in the next week or two should come from the moves in the regional banks, the small-caps, the S&P Equal Weight index, and (especially) the tech stocks.
Sep 18, 2023
Both the SMH semiconductor ETF and the tech laden NDX Nasdaq 100 Index stand at key technical juncture. They NEED to bounce strongly very soon. If, instead, they decline further, it’s going to be quite bearish for the tech sector…and the broad stock market as well.
Sep 17, 2023
"The chip stocks NEED to bounce immediately, or it will be quite negative on a technical basis. Not only for the group, but the tech sector AND the broad market.
Sep 15, 2023
We remain quite bullish on the energy sector on a longer-term basis. However, crude oil & the energy stocks are getting quite overbought…and bullish sentiment is reaching extreme levels. Thus, we think buying this group on dips…instead of chasing it right now…is the better play.
Sep 14, 2023
UPS has become very oversold at a time that it is testing a very important support level. When stocks test important support levels at a time that they’ve become very oversold, they usually see bounces that last for more than just a few days.
Sep 13, 2023
This morning’s CPI number should be important for bond market. (Duh)….However, if it is a non-event…and yields don’t move much…we think it will be negative for stocks. In other words, there is one bullish scenario for the stock market in terms of this data…and two bearish ones.
Sep 12, 2023
We'll be watching APPL & the Russell 2000 very closely this week. However, also keep an eye on LLY. It has become extremely overbought.
Sep 11, 2023
We’re flying our American flag proudly today…to honor those who died on 9/11 twenty-two years ago today…and those who have been affected by that day ever since. God bless you all.
Sep 10, 2023
The charts we provided this weekend should tell us if the Fed is moving forward in their process of normalizing the US economy & markets to their natural levels.
Sep 8, 2023
The dollar has become quite overbought and over-loved. Therefore, it’s getting ripe for a pullback. This could (repeat, COULD) have a positive impact on commodities and emerging markets.
Sep 7, 2023
On top of the drop in tech, this week’s weakness in the small-cap Russell 2000 is another concern. It underperformed during the late-August bounce in the stock market, so if it continues to decline going forward, it will raise some warning flags on the rest of the market.
Sep 5, 2023
The regional banks stocks have not recovered anywhere near as much of its August losses as the major averages. However, it is testing a key resistance level right now. So, whether it breaks above that level…or fails at that level…could/should be very important.
Sep 3, 2023
The markets stand at a critical juncture as we move into September. The quick return to widespread bullishness is misplaced. The era of "free money" is over.
Sep 1, 2023
For the second time this summer, it has failed to see any upside follow-through on some very bullish news on the ETF front. If it breaks below a key support level, it’s going to be very bearish for bitcoin and the crypto asset class on an intermediate-term basis.
Aug 31, 2023
We’re seeing a positive development on the technical side of things. If (repeat, IF) this becomes more compelling as we move past Labor Day, it will be quite bullish…even though we’re heading into the usually volatile month of September.
Aug 30, 2023
If the alliance between GOOGL/NVDA is a catalyst for a sustained rally (like the AMD/MSFT alliance was last quarter), it will bode very well for the broad market. If, however, the bounce fades as we move into September (like it did during earnings season)…September will be another rough month.
Aug 29, 2023
While we’re watching the tech stocks, the bank stocks, the SPX, the NDX, the bond market, China, etc….we’ll also be keeping a very close eye on the Russell 2000. It could/should tell us a lot about the strength in the U.S. economy going forward.
Aug 28, 2023
Just because the Fed injected some liquidity into the system last spring when the regional banking crisis erupted, it does not mean that we’re returning to the “free money” era that existed for much of the 15 years going into the end of 2021.
Aug 23, 2023
The simple things in life are frequently the best. One of those “simple things” for me is the “smell” that exists in the mornings of late-August.
Aug 22, 2023
With bond yields remaining elevated…and even rising…it’s putting even more pressure on Nvidia (NVDA) to report fabulous earnings and guidance tomorrow night.
Aug 21, 2023
With Nvidia reporting earnings and the Jackson Hole Symposium both taking place later this week, things could be quiet early on. However, that doesn't mean the market won't see any movement over the first three days of the week.
Aug 19, 2023
Interest rates/yields are merely rising back to their natural levels after being artificially low for a long time. Thus, they're going to remain higher than most investors realize.
Aug 18, 2023
If the bounce in bitcoin from the overnight lows can be sustained, it will be fine…but if it breaks its next (more important) support level, it’s going to be extremely bearish. Therefore, the next week or two is going to be extremely important for this asset class.
Aug 17, 2023
Don’t take any solace in the thought that 0dte options have helped cause the market to decline recently…because is ALSO helped it rally over the first seven months of the year. The real reasons for the pullback are still fundamentally based.
Aug 16, 2023
Why are so many people wondering if the problems in China will become a contagion. The developments of the past two weeks are already telling us that it IS becoming one. It might not become a major contagion, but the problems are DEFINITELY spreading.
Aug 15, 2023
We receieved even more negative news out of China this morning…as well as more negative news on the banks. With long-term Treasury yields at testing 15-year highs, today’s (still) expensive stock market remains vulnerable as we head towards to the frequently volatile September/October timeframe.
Aug 14, 2023
We got some more negative news out of China this morning. It’s not just that the “known” problems are growing…it’s the fact that new ones keep popping up that worries us. The term “contagion fear” tends to be thrown around too often, but it’s starting to become a legitimate fear with China.
Aug 13, 2023
In our opinion, the era of free money is behind us. Yes, the "Fed put" has returned, but we think it has been move further out-of-the-money recently.
Aug 11, 2023
Many/most global stock markets lost their upside momentum a while ago. Now we're seeing the same thing in the U.S. market....Stay nimble my firends!
Aug 10, 2023
The decline in the tech stocks over the past month has taken both the NDX and XLK down to very important support levels. Thus, if they fall further…either now, or after a short-term bounce…it’s going to signal a key change in trend on an intermediate-term basis.
Aug 9, 2023
If the bank stocks roll-over in any significant way as we move through the rest of August and towards the traditionally rough September/October timeframe, it will be something that raises a yellow flag for the market.
Aug 8, 2023
The rally in the stock market has forced many on Wall Street to change their recessionary calls to ones that look for a soft landing. However, since the earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have actually come down slightly, the real fundamental outlook really hasn’t changed very much.
Aug 7, 2023
Wealthy consumers are going overseas in droves, but we’re starting to see some evidence that the travel & leisure industry is not as strong domestically. If they pullback on spending for “experiences,” it will cause some problems for economic growth.
Aug 6, 2023
Sept & Oct frequently provide some rough sailing for investors, BUT the “top” that develops before that rough sailing tends to come in August, not at the beginning of September. With this in mind, we are definitely concerned about the rise in long-term yields to new highs for the year.
Aug 4, 2023
Higher bond yields are finally creating some headwinds for the stock market, so this morning’s employment data should be extremely important.
Aug 3, 2023
Tonight's earnings report out of Apple and tomorrow morning's employment report could create some big moves in both the stock and bond markets.
Aug 2, 2023
We’re not worried about the downgrades’ impact. That said, there ARE some developments to be concerned about…including the recent rise in Treasury yields and the steepening of the yield curve.
Aug 1, 2023
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is testing a very important resistance level. If it breaks above this level, it’s going to confirm a change in trend for commodities. That, in turn, will not be good for those hoping for Treasury yield to fall in the months ahead.
Jul 31, 2023
“Multiple expansion” does not CAUSE stocks to rally. Something else “causes” them to rally…and the RESULT is multiple expansion.)
Jul 30, 2023
The stock market continues to act great, but we're heading towards the dreaded Sept/Oct timeframe. Thus "rotation" and "contingency plans" will be essential
Jul 28, 2023
Powell made it evident this week that the Fed plans on keeping interest rates higher for longer. Even if they don’t rise much more, those rates are still going to be high for a stock market that is very expensive.
Jul 25, 2023
The targets many bullish pundits have for the S&P…and the growth in the economy & earnings they’re also looking for going forward…don’t add up. Therefore, stock & group “rotation” should be the key to outperformance in the second half of the year.
Jul 24, 2023
Bitcoin has broken slightly below its one-month sideways range. If it becomes a more meaningful “break,” it’s going to disappoint many bulls…who thought the ETF filing by BlackRock would lead to a significant breakout in this asset class.
Jul 23, 2023
Given how overbought & overvalued the tech sector has become, any outperformance we get in the second half will come from some of the groups we’ve highlighted this weekend.
Jul 21, 2023
We need to remember that the news from the chip second about demand has been poor for some time now. It has been the euphoria surrounding the prospects of AI that has fueled the rally in the group. Can that continue now that these stocks are quite expensive & overbought?
Jul 20, 2023
The direction of the next BIG move in the SMH should be VERY important! Will it be a breakout to new all-time highs...or a "double-top"???
Jul 19, 2023
The XLV is testing a key resistance level. If it can break above that level in a significant way, it’s going to be bullish. That could/should help it outperform in the second half. This could make this defensive sector an interesting play in a stock market that is becoming very, very expensive.
Jul 18, 2023
It’s weird how the bank stocks usually pullback after their reporting season, but it’s not always the case. If you like the banks going forward, take a look at BAC..as it should play catch up with JPM after the big divergence that has developed between the two stocks this year.
Jul 17, 2023
If China’s slowdown in growth spills over into the U.S., it should show up in the bond market. If yields decline, it should be positive for the stock market…UNLESS the drop in rates becomes steep (and thus signals a material slowdown in growth in the U.S.).
Jul 16, 2023
Very expensive stock markets cannot get more expensive without significant excess liquidity. Will the Fed keep that flow coming now that the banking crisis is calming down?
Jul 13, 2023
The action in gold recently has been very constructive. Therefore, it won’t take much more upside follow-through to confirm that the recent two-month down-trend has reversed to the upside.
Jul 12, 2023
The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index has broken the key resistance levels we highlighted in our recent weekend piece, but only slightly so. If (repeat, IF) they can break those levels in a more meaningful way, it’s going to be very bullish for the small-cap arena of the U.S. stock market.
Jul 11, 2023
WTI crude oil is close to testing several key resistance levels. If they can break above those levels, we’ll have to turn more constructive on the energy stocks once again.
Jul 10, 2023
Expectations about this earnings season is not as low as it has been over the past 3-4 quarters. Therefore, it’s going to be harder for the market to rally if all we get is an earnings season that is “not as bad as we thought”…especially since the market has become so expensive.
Jul 9, 2023
The U.S. 10yr Treasury yield is on the cusp of confirming a change to an upward trend. That will not be good for today's very expensive stock market.
Jul 7, 2023
The HYG high yield ETF broke below its trend-line from last October. Given that a divergence has developed between the S&P 500 and the HYG, if this breakdown is confirmed soon, it will raise the odds that this divergence will be resolved with a material drop in the stock market.
Jul 6, 2023
The 10yr yield is breaking above its trend-channel from last October. If this rise holds through tomorrow’s employment report, it’s going to confirm a change in the intermediate-term trend for long-term interest rates. That is not going to be good for stocks.
Jul 5, 2023
The Russell 2000 small-cap index is testing a couple of key resistance levels. Therefore, if (repeat, IF) it can rally much further as we move through July, it’s going to be quite bullish for this part of the market on a technical basis.
Jul 2, 2023
The regional banking crisis IS going to cause credit to contract. Credit contractions always produce slower growth. That's going to create headwinds for today' expensive stock market at some point soon.
Jun 30, 2023
The stock market continues to ignore the Fed, but how long can it ignore the renewed rise in Treasury yields??? When the 2yr and 10yr Treasury note yields were trading at these same levels three months ago, the S&P 500 was trading more than 10% below where it is today.
Jun 29, 2023
Why does the stock market ignore the Fed when the Fed HAS done exactly what they said they’d do during 2021 (QE too long)…and in 2022 (aggressive tightening). Yes, they were wrong with those policies both times, but they still did what they said they were going to do!!!
Jun 28, 2023
The SMH semiconductor ETF has formed a “head & shoulders” pattern. If it breaks below the “neck-line” of that pattern (after already becoming overbought and experiencing a negative MACD cross), it’s going to be negative on a technical basis.
Jun 27, 2023
The recent drop in the IBB biotech ETF has it testing its multi-month trend line. It will take more downside follow-through to raise some warning flags on this group, but there are definitely some cracks developing on the technical side of things.
Jun 26, 2023
There are quite a number of more indications that China’s economy is much weaker than expected.....Also, if China’s stock market falls much further, it’s going to create several different negative developments on the technical side of things.
Jun 24, 2023
The technology and bank stocks are starting to sniff out the big credit contraction that is coming. Caveat emptor.
Jun 23, 2023
The bank stocks are rolling back over after a technical bounce. If the continue to be weak, it will likely signal that and “landing” we see in the economy over the next 6-12 months will be harder than the consensus is thinking right now.
Jun 22, 2023
Tesla (TSLA) is showing signs that it’s ripe for a correction. (After such a great run, that would be normal and healthy.) If the stock sees much more downside follow-through from yesterday, it will signal that investors should look for lower levels to add to positions.
Jun 21, 2023
Bitcoin is bouncing strongly on speculation that the SEC will give approval for a BlackRock ETF. If (repeat, IF) bitcoin can break strongly above its March April highs, it’s going to be very bullish for the crypto asset class.
Jun 20, 2023
The XLK tech ETF has become quite overbought and its biggest components are now very expensive. Therefore, the group could/should take a breather soon...before it takes a run at breaking its 2021 all-time highs.
Jun 17, 2023
The breakout in the SPX & NDX has been impressive, but make no mistake about it...this rally is being driven by liquidity, not improving fundamentals.
Jun 16, 2023
Despite some negative news out of United Healthcare this week, the XLV healthcare ETF is testing a key resistance level. Therefore, f it can rally much further, it could signal that this defensive group will surprise people to the upside this summer.
Jun 15, 2023
Bitcoin is breaking slightly below the key $25k support level & Ethereum is testing its 200-day moving average. Thus, any further weakness will be quite negative on a technical basis.
Jun 14, 2023
Although the long-term outlook for Japan's stock market remains good, it has become overbought near-term. Thus investors should not chase that market...and instead look for lower levels to add positions in the coming weeks.
Jun 13, 2023
Apple (AAPL) was downgraded by UBS this morning. We thought that was against the law! Seriously though, when you combine the outlook for iPhone sales, the stock’s valuation and overbought condition, a near-term breather is not out of the question.
Jun 12, 2023
Crude oil is close to testing its 200-week moving average. That line has been a VERY important one the past, so whether it breaks below it…or bounces off of it once gain…should be quite important in the days and weeks ahead.
Jun 11, 2023
AI is going to change the world. However, like it has several times in the past, excess liquidity has made a new phenomenon seem like it's going to change things quicker than it really will.
Jun 9, 2023
The dollar is sitting at a key technical juncture…and right now, it looks like it wants to reverse lower. We’ll need to see more downside follow-through to confirm a change in trend, but if it takes place, will have important implications for other asset classes in the months ahead.
Jun 8, 2023
The Russell 2000 Index has broken one key resistance level. Whether it breaks a very important second resistance level…or fails at that line…should be very important for how the entire stock market fares over the summer months.
Jun 7, 2023
A break above 4,300 on the S&P would be VERY bullish, but since this is not a fundamentally based rally, a breakout is not a lock by any means.
Jun 6, 2023
Even the stocks of great companies see pullbacks/corrections when they become expensive and overbought. In fact, it’s normal and healthy when they do. APPL could be due for one if it closes below a certain level this week.
Jun 5, 2023
We also highlighted the consumer staples group as one that is very oversold and poised for a nice rally. Thus, it’s a group that investors should not ignore…especially if they’re worried about how long the current stock market rally will last.
Jun 2, 2023
Since everybody is talking about the employment report this morning, we thought we’d be a little different and touch on the energy stocks. This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is going to be very important…because the energy sector stands at a key technical juncture.
Jun 1, 2023
As we learned in the late 1990s...and with TSLA and Bitcoin more recently...even the biggest rallies see substantial pullbacks along the way.
May 31, 2023
If one is realistic, we believe that it is hard to argue that the rest of the stock market can catch-up to the big-cap tech sector…with a credit crunch looming in the U.S….and the growth in China fading in a serious manner.
May 30, 2023
The consumer staples sector is becoming very oversold. It should bounce soon...especially if the extremely overbought techs stocks correct.
May 28, 2023
Tech is now extremely overbought...and a credit crunch is coming. That combination will create headwinds for stocks soon.
May 26, 2023
When you combine the upside breakout in yields with the overbought technical condition of the tech sector, it should be ripe for a pullback soon.
May 25, 2023
NVDA's earnings/guidance were fabulous, but there are too many bizarre things going on in the marketplace to turn bullish now.
May 24, 2023
NVDA reports tonight…and we just think it’s important to note that no stock (or group…or market) moves in a straight line. Thus, even if one is wildly bullish the stock & the sector, they should be looking for at least a short-term pullback that starts at some point soon.
May 23, 2023
Higher interest rates have not had a negative impact on the tech group at all recently. However, given that the group is overbought, and several key tech stocks are expensive again, the group could/should be vulnerable soon. (This should be true even if it’s going higher eventually.)
May 22, 2023
The risk/reward equation is not a great one when it comes to the debt ceiling issue.
May 20, 2023
The only reason the market has held up during the current banking crisis is excess Fed liquidity. Will they have the courage to remove it?
May 19, 2023
We’re seeing some underperformance from several defensive groups…including the consumer staples. Is this just something that is working off an overbought condition…or is it the beginning of a big “rotation” move?