Archive
Sep 11, 2024
What Is Suddenly Up With The Financial Sector???
It was quite astonishing to hear so about many DIFFERENT headwinds that the financial sector is suddenly facing. If these many different problems become bigger ones, it’s going to raise some serious questions about whether the U.S. economy will indeed see a soft landing.Sep 10, 2024
How Important is the Shape of the Yield Curve?
History tells us that the recent change in shape of the yield curve IS very important. However, we have to wait so see if this change in shape becomes sustainable now…or at some point in the future.Sep 9, 2024
Keep Your Eyes Peeled To The TV This Week!
When it comes to global growth, one index has been a very good indicator over the years. Therefore, we’ll be watching this index very closely over the coming weeks and months.Sep 8, 2024
Merely Avoiding a Recession Will Not Be Enough to Keep the Stock Market Elevated For Long
The stock market is NOT pricing in a “soft landing.” It’s pricing in a very strong economy!....So, it won't take a recession to cause the stock market to correct in a meaningful way before too long.Sep 6, 2024
It's All About The Jobs Report Today (Duh).
Since BOTH the stock AND bond markets stand at key technical levels, the potential for some decisive moves in the marketplace today is quite high……Hold onto your hats!Sep 5, 2024
Friday's Employment Report Could Actually Be More Important For Fixed Income Investors
Whether it signals lower inflation OR higher odds of a recession…it will be bullish for the bond market either way…if (repeat, IF) it’s something that pushes the 10yr yield below 3.8% in any significant manner.Sep 4, 2024
The Tech Sector Just Got Hit with the Second Part of a One-Two Punch
It is evident that the earnings growth from the AI phenomenon is not broadening out quickly. NOW, we learned that the earnings growth for the AI chip makers might fade.Sep 3, 2024
Can The Consumer Continue To Hold Up?
The consumer discretionary stocks have lagged the S&P 500 during the bounce of the past few weeks. Whether it can play catch-up or not going forward should be important.Sep 1, 2024
Heading Into "Scary Season" With Lots Of Upside Momentum. Will It Last???
The "Fed put" could hold things up for longer, but fundamentals and valuations DO matter in the long run.Aug 29, 2024
Is the Yield Curve Still an Important Indicator?
The real history surrounding the “inverted yield curve” issue is finally getting some more attention around Wall Street. So, it will be interesting to see how the markets react if/when the yield curve moves meaningfully back into positive territory.Aug 28, 2024
Let's Hope That We're Not Waiting For Godot
"Those who want to make negative bets (or further negative bets) on the dollar and/or dollar related assets…could/should get a better opportunity after a near-term bounce in the greenback."Aug 27, 2024
Microsoft is Lagging Badly. What Does This Mean for the Enthusiasm Surrounding the AI Phenomenon?
Microsoft’s stock has been lagging badly during the recent bounce. We’ll be watching two key levels for clues as to whether this important stock can play catch up….or if it fails.Aug 26, 2024
Nvidia's Earnings Are Not The Only Item To Focus On This Week
Despite the underperformance in recent months, the energy sector’s trend of “higher-lows/higher-highs” remains intact…and there are reasons to think that this group can surprise everybody and outperform over the rest of this year.Aug 25, 2024
Can the Small Cap Stock Finally Outperform in a Sustainable Fashion?
The "internals" for the Russell 2000 during Friday's big jump were spectacular. This just might be a sign that the small caps can finally outperform over a sustainable period of time.Aug 23, 2024
It's All About Jackson Hole Today
We saw something in the action of the tech sector yesterday that might (repeat, MIGHT) be telling us that they’re in for some weakness…at least over the near-term.Aug 21, 2024
Wait, what? Did the Stock Market Actually Go Down Yesterday???
We still think the action during the "next dip" will be key. We just need a "next dip" to actually take place...so that we can figure out what's next!Aug 20, 2024
The Energy Stocks Look Attractive At Current Levels
The energy stocks have underperformed the stock market during this bounce...even though crude oil has remained range-bound. This is creating a nice buying opportunity.Aug 19, 2024
Can the Housing Stocks Keep Rallying?
Lower mortgage rates have not helped the Housing Starts data. Will it help the home sales data? Whether it does or not could/should be very important for the housing sector…AND for the general economy as well.Aug 17, 2024
The Bulls Are Back In Charge. Will It Last?
The stock market still faces many headwinds, but momentum can be a very powerful force....Longer-term, we looking at a deep correction...that begins within 6-9 months.Aug 16, 2024
The Democratic Convention Could Be Very Important For One Key Group Next Week
We’ll be watching to see if one issue becomes a cornerstone for VP Harris’s campaign. If it does, it could/should have an important impact on one key group in the stock market.Aug 15, 2024
The Next 7 Trading Days Should Be Crucial For The Stock Market
We're skeptical about the further upside potential for stocks, BUT we ARE seeing some signs in the charts that this bounce could have some legs, but we’ll have to see more upside follow-through for confirmation.Aug 14, 2024
The U.S. 10-Year Note Yield Stands at a Critical Level
As for the bond market…on the technical side of things…the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is sitting at a critical level on its longer-term chart.Aug 13, 2024
When The Unwinding Of The "Carry Trade" Comes To An End, It Will Not End The Headwinds Facing The Stock Market
We now have an extremely important support level for one particular ETF to keep a VERY close eye on. If (repeat, IF) it is broken in any meaningful way, it will signal that we have a lot more downside potential for this decline in the stock market before it bottoms.Aug 7, 2024
My View From a Distance
All too often, the first sharp decline is merely a warning signal of something worse down the road when it comes to the markets. (Warren Buffett didn't sell half his AAPL position because he thought it was going higher.)Aug 2, 2024
Change In Trend For The Markets? (Very Likely.)
The issues we have been warning about are all coming to a head. This will make a move to new all-time highs in the stock market difficult to achieve this year.Aug 2, 2024
Mighty Mouse Is Not Here To Save the Day This Time
The earnings from Apple and Amazon have not saved the day (like they did last quarter)….If the major averages see any more downside follow-through, it will confirm a change in trend for the stock market.Aug 1, 2024
One Group Has Become Poised For An Important Breakout!
One key group…that is far away from the tech sector…is poised for a very strong breakout move. It could also provide some protection from a decline in other sectors!Jul 31, 2024
It's Not Just The Tech Sector and the Fed.
There are other very important issues to consider that just the tech sector & the Fed. One could have an extremely important impact on how much net liquidity will be available in the global system in the weeks and months ahead.Jul 30, 2024
Don't Ignore Former Fed Officials
Former Fed officials don't make important public comments without a lot of thought...so ignoring their comments can be a big mistake.Jul 29, 2024
Critical Week
No matter what happens between now and the end of the year for the Russell 2000, it is becoming very overbought on a near-term basis. Therefore, investors need to be careful about being aggressive in this space over the short-term.Jul 26, 2024
Next Week Should Be Critical For the Stock Market
With more big-tech earnings, the Fed meeting, and the S&P and Nasdaq at key support levels...next week is going to be a critical one for the stock market.Jul 26, 2024
Nancy Outmaneuvers Barak
How many people realize that the S&P 500, the NDX Nasdaq 100…AND the Russell 2000…have all declined over the past seven trading days? This raises questions about how long the small cap space can hold up if (repeat, IF) the tech stocks continue to decline.Jul 25, 2024
More Evidence That This Might Be A Key Turning Point For The Markets
Several developments (both fundamental & technical) are telling us we could be seeing a key turning point for the markets.....This is especially true given that one key sector is showing signs of an important change in its intermediate-term trend (not just its short-term one.)Jul 24, 2024
Where's The Beef???
There are some more early signs that the MASSIVE investment into AI is not producing revenues/profits as quickly as the stock market has been pricing in over the past year.Jul 23, 2024
Is The Recent Pullback In Tech Something More Than April's Mild Decline?
Earnings and (more importantly) guidance should still be the most important mover of the stock market over the coming weeks...especially for the tech sector.Jul 22, 2024
It Won't Take Long For The Focus To Turn Back Towards This Earnings Season
President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. This is big news…but it does not mean that investors won’t have to pay attention to the current earnings season…or the escalating conflict in the Middle East…or the fact that global technology system partially shut down last week.Jul 21, 2024
The Stock Market Has Become MUCH More Fragile Over The Past Week
The huge technology outage and the tariff proposal on chips...have made this very expensive stock market more vulnerable over the past week.Jul 19, 2024
Has The "Rotation" Move Ended Aleady???
We have another chart this morning which shows that a key leadership group is showing signs that it is rolling over. So, if it sees much more weakness over the coming days and weeks, it will raise a big warning flag.Jul 18, 2024
As Tech Goes...So Goes The Rest Of The Stock Market
We’re sorry, these big-cap tech names are just too heavily weighted in the S&P 500 and NDX 100…for them not to have a significant effect on the rest of the market to the downside…just like they did to the upside from October of 2022 to this summer.Jul 17, 2024
Beware of UFO's (UnForeseen Occurances)
If the tech stocks see a sustainable decline due to the new-news out of the Biden Administration, investors will likely start "rotating" towards cash.Jul 16, 2024
The Small-Cap Stocks Are Getting Quite Overbought
The Russell 2000 is getting quite overbought, so investors need to be careful about chasing these names over the near-term.Jul 15, 2024
Our Focus Is Still On This Earnings Season.
We believe that this earnings season...especially the earnings guidance that will be provided...will be more important than the assassination attempt...for the direction of the stock market over the coming weeks/months.Jul 13, 2024
If the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Meaningfully, History Tells Us That It Will be Negative for Stocks, NOT positive!
If interest rates decline in a meaningful way, it will indicate a significant slowdown in the economy, NOT lower inflation. THAT will be negative for stocks.Jul 12, 2024
A "Rotational" Move is NOT the Same as a "Broadening Out" move!
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 WILL decline substantially if the large-cap tech stocks decline in a significant way…for the simple reason that these stocks are SO highly weighted in those indices.Jul 11, 2024
Two Indices & One Big Stock: All Three are Quite Overbought Near-Term
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 are seeing the kind of overbought conditions that we have not seen since September 2020…just before a correction. Therefore, the stock market could/should be vulnerable to any material negative news we might get over the near-term.Jul 10, 2024
Hold Onto Your Hats, Next Week Could Be An Historic One!
We should also get some dramatic excitement in the realm of politics. In fact, we believe next week will be an historic one for the political arena.Jul 9, 2024
One Very Well-Known Stock is Now Ripe for a Very Strong Bounce
One very well-known stock has reached the kind of oversold level that makes it VERY appealing for a very strong multi-week bounce (and maybe a strong longer-term rally as well).Jul 8, 2024
Shake Up in the Markets this Week???
We thought it would be fun to provide some surprising predictions for who will be on the ticket…for BOTH parties...in this year's Presidential Election.Jul 6, 2024
Earnings Estimates Have to Rise Significantly to Justify a Further Rally in the Stock Market
Earnings forecasts need to improve dramatically to justify this rally in the stock market. We're sorry, but you need better than 8% earnings growth if the S&P is trading at 23x forward earnings.Jul 5, 2024
Elections.....NFP.....Bitcoin's Tumble
Bitcoin has fallen well below its KEY support level. If it does not bounce back strongly and immediately, it will be quite negative for the crypto on a technical basis.Jul 3, 2024
Biden...the Yen...and Bitcoin
It will still take a drop below the early May low of $57,300 to raise a big red warning flag on Bitcoin, but that's now becoming a real possibility.Jul 2, 2024
Were Bond Investors Caught "Wrong Footed" Yesterday?
The bond market saw a very strange move yesterday. It ignored the weaker data…and moved on speculation about the outcome of the November election. Since the election is so far off…and the move in the Treasury market was so large…it signals to us that something else was afoot yesterday.Jul 1, 2024
It Might Not Be The Typically Boring Start To The Month Of July For The Markets
The first week of July tends to be an extremely boring one each year. However, there are several reasons (both political and financial) to think that this might not be the case this year.Jun 30, 2024
Some Other Groups are Going to Outperform Tech in the Second Half of 2024
There are quite a few issues that are percolating around the world today…and any one of them could cause a significant disruption in the marketplace. (God help us if more than one blows up at the same time.)Jun 28, 2024
Breakout Time For The Energy Stocks?
Crude oil is holding above its key resistance level. This should cause the energy stocks to play catch up in a big way going forward…given how much the group has lagged behind its underlying commodity over the past month.Jun 27, 2024
One Very Important Stock Broke a KEY Resistance Level Yesterday!
A lot of investors want to know which stocks and groups will outperform in the second half of this year. Well, one very important stock broke above a critical resistance level yesterday. So, if it can hold that level going forward, it’s going to bode very well for the stock.Jun 26, 2024
Is the Biotech Sector on the Verge of an Important Breakout?
One of the key ETF’s for the biotech sector is showing signs that the group could be on the verge of an important breakout.Jun 25, 2024
Crunch Time For The Bank of Japan
Japan's yen is testing its lows from late-April. Whether the BOJ does something more concrete to defend their currency…or not…will be critical. This is especially true given that the yen has been such an important currency for the “carry trade.”Jun 24, 2024
The Tech Stocks Will be Key This Week. (Duh)
Overbought groups can see outsized declines…even if their fundamental outlook remains strong.Jun 18, 2024
One Group is Seeing a Great "Set-up" For a Big Advance
A divergence has developed between crude oil & the energy stocks. So, if yesterday's breakout in WTI holds, the energy stocks will have some catching up to do.Jun 17, 2024
Earnings Estimates HAVE to Improve Significantly if the Market is Going to Advance More Than it Already Has
The earnings estimates for the second half of this year…and for 2025…are going to HAVE to improve for the market to rally a lot more than it already has this year. Excess liquidity won’t be around forever, so the “E” part of the forward “P/E” ratio is going to have to improve in a meaningful way.Jun 16, 2024
This VERY "Narrow" Rally Is Becoming Vulnerable Near-Term
The stock market continues to rally, but it's VERY "narrow" and it's now getting quite overbought near-term.Jun 14, 2024
Root For The Celtics! (Your Financial Future Could Depend On It!!!)
The situation in Europe is starting to get a little dicey. This could create problems for the stock market…given how expensive and overbought that it has become.Jun 13, 2024
The Treasury Market Stands at a CRITICAL level
The Treasury market is testing a key level. If this level is broken, it’s going to be extremely important for the bond market overall…and will have major implications for the fixed income asset class.Jun 12, 2024
Apple Helps the Market Pass its First Test of the Week...The Next (Bigger) Test Comes Today
The rally in AAPL to a new all-time high will be quite bullish on a technical basis for the stock (assuming it doesn’t reverse quickly). This will be true if one other Mag 7 stock also see more upside follow-through (and we’re not talking about Nvidia).Jun 10, 2024
Can Apple Pass Its "Where's the Beef" test?
Two key tech stocks stand at critical levels on a technical basis this week (NVDA & AAPL). How AAPL answers the, “Where’s the beef” question…should play an important role today.Jun 9, 2024
Apple, CPI, Fed, Auctions: Lots to Decipher Next Week. So, It Could Be a Critical One.
It’s still going to be extremely difficult for the Fed to begin cutting rates in time to prevent a significant slowdown in growth. They’ve only been able to do it once in 80 years…and with inflation remaining somewhat sticky, that will make it even harder than usual this time around.Jun 7, 2024
"You Can't Fight In Here, This Is the War Room!"
The Game Stop saga is making a fool out of some investors...and it's the sign of an unhealthy stock market.Jun 6, 2024
Is a "Narrow" Rally Always a Poor Rally?
The rally to yet another record in the stock market was a “narrow” one once again. However, to a certain degree, it makes total sense that this rally is a narrow one. That doesn’t guarantee that it will continue, but it DOES make sense.Jun 5, 2024
Several Different Markets Are Suddenly Signaling a Material Slowdown
The moves in several different markets are suddenly indicating that a material slow down in growth is on the horizon. That might not seem possible in an election year, but if the three charts we highlight today continue to decline, it will raise some real questions about U.S. growth.Jun 4, 2024
WTI Crude Oil Is Testing a Critical Technical Support Area
If WTI breaks more significantly below its key support level, it's going to be quite bearish on a technical basis.Jun 3, 2024
We're Looking At One Surprising Group That Has Some Very Strong Upside Potential
There is one group that could see a surprisingly strong rally over the coming months…if their ETF breaks above its key resistance level.Jun 2, 2024
If Tech Sees a Material Pullback, "Rotation" Will Turn Into "Selling"
The tech sector is so heavily weighted in the major averages that a drop in the group will cause a meaningful drop in those indices. THAT will cause investors to top "rotating," and to start "selling."May 31, 2024
"Rotation" Isn't Always Good in the Stock Market.....Also, Europe is Showing a Few Cracks
The recent "rotation" in the stock market has really been a "churning" action...which tends to be near-term bearish after a nice advance.May 30, 2024
Commercial Real Estate is Quickly Becoming a Concern Once Again
A new report shows that the big banks have higher exposure to commercial real estate than is widely known.May 29, 2024
What's Going On With The Global Bond Markets?
"Given the proclivity of both parties in Washington DC to ignore the budgetary problems they face, it’s hard to think that the supply/demand equation is going to improve in a significant way for the Treasury market…especially with the Fed pushing the “high for longer” mantra so hard recently."May 28, 2024
WTI Crude Oil: "The Battle of the 200s"
If Iran continues to move closer to becoming a nuclear power, the war in the Middle East will expand in a substantial manner.May 26, 2024
After Zero Growth Last Year, 11% Earnings Growth This Year Is Not Enough
The stock market rallied 25% last year on ZERO earnings growth. Thus, it's going to have to have much higher than 10%-11% in future years to justify today's market levels. (There's a REASON the market is expensive!!!)May 24, 2024
A Poor Reaction to Good News is Never Encouraging
The action in the broad stock market yesterday…after such fabulous earnings/guidance out of Nvidia…was very disappointing. The “internals” from yesterday…and some other technical developments…are pointing to the possibility of a reversal in the stock market before too long.May 23, 2024
Nvidia's 10 for 1 Stock Split Should Create More Demand for the Stock, But it Could Create More Volatility Down the Road
The 10 for 1 stock split for NVDA could/should attract more individual investors for the stock, but it should also do the same for its options. That could be bullish near-term, BUT it could also create more volatility when the stock sees any (inevitable) corrections in the future.May 22, 2024
We Will Be Honoring Our Fallen Heroes This Weekend.
No matter how you feel about what is going on in our country today, we hope you will consider flying the American flag this weekend. Doing so merely honors those who have given “the last full measure of devotion” to their country…….Our flag will be flying all weekend.May 21, 2024
What Do Ethereum and Wheat Have in Common?
Actually, Ethereum and wheat have almost nothing in common, but their moves over the coming weeks could still be very important...on several fronts.May 20, 2024
Be VERY Careful About Chasing Copper Up At These Levels
No asset moves in a straight line...no matter how good or bad its prospects might be. Copper is now at the kind of overbought level that if frequently followed by material pullbacks.May 17, 2024
It's Still All About Liquidity
1) Slight break above the all-time highs. Will the stock market breakout…or form a “double-top”??? 2) History shows that Fed rate cuts…after an aggressive tightening cycle…are BEARISH for stock, NOT bullish!May 16, 2024
A Very Short-Term "Breather" is Quite Likely Right Now for the Stock Market
The stock market saw a nice new breakout to an all-time high yesterday. However, it likely needs to take a short-term “breather” after the recent strong advance…..We cannot count out a “double-top” on its longer-term chart, so the market is still at a key level.May 15, 2024
Will the Meme-Stock Revival Disappear as Quickly as it Reappeared?
The data over the past month has been weaker than expected. How is this going to create the kind of VERY strong growth in earnings that the consensus is looking for in the second half of this year?May 14, 2024
Forget About GME and Focus on the Stocks That Have Sustainable Potential
We have become more constructive on the energy stocks…and we’ll become outright bullish if WTI crude oil can break above $80 in a meaningful way. One stock that looks particularly intriguing to us on a technical basis…if it crude oil can indeed move above that $80 level in a significant manner.May 13, 2024
This Week Should be a CRITICAL One for the Stock Market
We might not like it when one data point becomes extremely important for the outlook on the stock market, but there is little question that this happens from time to time....This week is one of those times.May 12, 2024
Thank Goodness For All Of The Stimulus, But The Steroids Cannot Last Forever
This earnings season has actually only been "okay." Bond yields are still very high vs. the past 17 years. Thus, this week's inflation data will be EXTREMELY important.May 10, 2024
What's Up with the Lower Volume in Tech?
What’s going on with the implosion of volume in the QQQ’s this week? Could this be a sign that the demand for the tech sector is waning? It’s too early to draw that conclusion just yet, but investors just might have to be a lot more nimble going forward.May 9, 2024
We're Still Keeping a Very Close Eye on Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has seen some positive developments since we highlighted it as being quite oversold two days ago. Therefore, if it can rally any further…and take-out an important resistance level…it should run quite nicely…very soon.May 8, 2024
This Rally Needs to Broaden Out More in Order to be Sustainable
The bounce off the April lows for the stock market has been a narrow one. That’s not the end of the world, but it would be a lot more positive if this rally can broaden out over the coming days and weeks…given that the market is a lot more expensive than it was at this time last year.May 7, 2024
Crude Oil Looks Ripe for a Nice Bounce on a Technical Basis
WTI crude oil is testing a key support level. However, it has also reached the kind of oversold condition that has been followed by strong bounces in the past. Therefore, we believe this commodity (and its related stocks) look very enticing right here.May 6, 2024
Our Most Important Call of the Year (BY FAR)!!!
This is the most important note we’ll send out all year. No, this has nothing to do with any market analysis. It has to do with reminding you to make your Mother’s Day arrangements RIGHT NOW. DO NOT WAIT another minute. The rest of your life could depend on this!!!May 5, 2024
Nice Week Last Week, But We're Not Out of the Woods Yet
The markets had a nice week last week, but they still need to see more upside follow-through to confirm that the worst is behind us.May 3, 2024
The Strategies that Worked Over the Past 6 Months...Will Not Necessarily Be What Works for the Rest of 2024
How many people realize that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has only traded higher than where it stands today for FIVE weeks over the past 17 years? With valuations elevated, that should change investors strategies.May 2, 2024
Apple's All-Important Support/Resistance Levels are Very Well Defined as They Report Their Earnings Today
AAPL reports earnings after the close. If one of the distinct support/resistance levels is broken in a meaningful way, it should be a very important signal as to where the stock is headed over the rest of Q2…(and probably beyond).May 1, 2024
Sometimes "Better Than Expected" Is Not Enough
As we have been saying for some time now, the recent “set up” in the stock market is very reminiscent of what we saw last August. After a huge rally in the stock market…and a significant rise in bond yields…even good earnings were not enough to prevent a correction from taking place.Apr 30, 2024
Meaningfully Higher Bond Yields Always Create Headwinds for Stocks Eventually
Just because higher long-term bond yields have not had an impact on the stock market yet, it does not mean it’s something that investors can ignore. In fact, history tells us that higher yields are FREQUENTLY ignored for many months…only to create significant headwinds eventually.Apr 29, 2024