Archive

Mar 4, 2024

We Could See Some Interesting Swings This Week, But......

There is definitely some froth in the marketplace right now. No matter how you slice it, froth or no froth, many assets are becoming quite overbought on a short-term basis.  Therefore, even the biggest bulls should looking for some sort of pullback before too long. 
Mar 3, 2024

GREAT Momentum in the Markets, But We Should See a Short-Term Breather Before Long

We think the market can still see a bit more upside follow-through over the very-short-term.  However, it is getting to the kind of overbought and over-loved level that is usually followed by pullback that last more than just a few days…and take the market down by more than just 2%-3%. 
Mar 1, 2024

Techs? Sure...But Watch the Banks and Crude Oil as Well Today

The news from NYCB raises further questions about the regional banks....However, crude oil is close to breaking out. THAT would be very bullish for the energy stocks.
Feb 29, 2024

Can the Homebuilders Continue to Ignore Today's Higher Yields/Rates?

As we've been saying, today's inflation report could/should have an important impact on Treasury yields and stock sectors like the Russell 2000. It should be important for the housing stocks as well.
Feb 28, 2024

The Small Cap Stocks Stand at a Critical Juncture

Tomorrow's inflation data could be important for both the bond market and the stock market. The reaction to that data on the 10yr yield and the Russell 2000 will be key.
Feb 27, 2024

Too Much Money is Chasing the Flavor of the Day

The huge moves in stocks with the most momentum on any given day is a sign of an unhealthy market.
Feb 26, 2024

Is the Biotech Sector Poised for an Upside Breakout?

The IBB biotech ETF is testing a KEY resistance level. If it breaks above that level in any meaningful way, it's going to be VERY bullish for the group on a technical basis.
Feb 25, 2024

Lots of Opportunities Inside AND Outside Tech, BUT the Risks are Definitely Rising

The momentum in the stock market is tremendous, and it's not just the tech stocks. However, bond yields are high and earnings ar NOT rising. So the risks are higher than normal.
Feb 23, 2024

Is Your "AI Portfolio" Properly Weighted?

It's not whether you're overweight Nvidia. It's whether you're overweight enough!
Feb 22, 2024

Don't Just Focus on Tech Today! There are Other Opportunities as Well!

Tech is (rightfully) the #1 focus today. However, we're seeing a development in another sector that is signaling that it will outperform nicely in the months ahead.
Feb 21, 2024

While You're Waiting for Nvidia to Report, Take a Look at Gold

The DXY dollar index is suddenly showing signs of weakness.  If it falls much further from here, it could/should signal more weakness going forward.  If that…or any other issue…causes gold to break above its all-important resistance level, it’s going to be EXTREMELY bullish for the yellow metal. 
Feb 20, 2024

Nvidia: Great Earnings Are Not Always Enough To Rally Its Stock

As we learned last August, sometimes Nvidia's stock gives us a "sell the news" reaction to its earnings...even when they're fabulouos.
Feb 18, 2024

Look for More Volatility as We Now Enter a Seasonally Tougher Time for the Stock Market

Despite was some pundits are trying to say, this rally is STILL a VERY narrow. Therefore, it NEEDS broaden out a lot more than the very mild move we've seen recently.
Feb 16, 2024

Is the Russell 2000 on the Cusp of an Important Breakout?

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index has moved back above the $2,000 level again.  If it can follow this with a meaningful and sustainable break above its December highs, it’s going to be very bullish for this index on a technical basis. 
Feb 15, 2024

A Stock Market Pullback Would Actually Be Normal...AND Healthy!

With the bond market moving in a different direction than the stock market…and with some stocks (not just SMCI) seeing parabolic rallies…the market is becoming ripe for a pullback.  However, that would be normal...AND healthy!!!
Feb 14, 2024

Will This Morning's Bounce In Stocks Hold If Yields Don't Rollover?

Yes, the stock market could easily continue to rally in a significant way, but it is important to note that a change in trend in the Treasury market is taking place…and thus now is not the time for investors to be complacent.
Feb 13, 2024

The Treasury Market Stands at a Critical Level

Today’s CPI number could be very important for both the bond and the stock markets....given that long-term Treasury yields are testing a very important resistance level…and their prices testing key support. 
Feb 12, 2024

What Do Bitcoin & the CPI Data Have in Common?

Whether the CPI number has an impact or not, we’ll be watching the Treasury market VERY closely this week….because it should have an important impact on the stock market as well.
Feb 11, 2024

Fabulous New Highs For Stocks, But Risks Are Higher Than Normal...So Stay Nimble

The stock market continues to make records, but the risk/reward equation has moved much farther to the side of risk than many investors realize right now…and thus we believe that more than a little bit of caution is warranted.   
Feb 9, 2024

The Economically Sensitive Homebuilders Stand at a Key Juncture

The next big move in the bond market should also have an important impact on the economically sensitive home building stocks.  Whichever way it breaks out of its recent range should tell us a lot about the economy and the broad stock market going forward.
Feb 8, 2024

Disney: Another Example of How Extreme Sentiment is Usually Wrong

Our bullish call on Disney (DIS) from a few weeks ago is working out extremely well.  It shows how we always want to look “beyond the fundamentals” to find good turnaround stories at key junctures. 
Feb 7, 2024

Watch the All-Important "Taylor Swift Indicator"!

Today’s record setting 10-year auction might (repeat, might) have an important impact on the outlook for long-term bond yields…which are close to confirming a change in trend.
Feb 6, 2024

Sell Now...and Then Buy, Buy, Buy in March/April???

Feb 5, 2024

Did the Fed Just Move the Strike Price of Their "Put"?

There does seem to be some question, however, as to whether the Fed has recently tried to signal that their “put” has moved to a level that is more out-of-the-money than it was last spring after the huge 28% rally in the S&P 500 since then (and +49% in the NDX 100). 
Jan 30, 2024

Bank Stocks Testing Resistance...Poised to Breakout?

If (repeat, IF) the bank ETF's can break above their key resistance levels, the momentum it produces could/should lead to another nice rally leg for this group.  So, don’t focus solely on the tech stocks and the Treasury market this week.
Jan 29, 2024

The Comparisons with 2020 are Getting More Similar by the Day

The comparisons we have been making with today’s situation…to that of 2020…are getting more similar by the day.  (They both had a strong rally that pushed the stock market into expensive/overbought levels…with a possible large negative catalyst on the horizon.)
Jan 27, 2024

It's Not Just Like 1999 All Over Again, BUT That's Not a Reason To Become Complacent

The stock market could easily move higher, but it's getting overbought and very expensive. Investors NEED to stay nimble right now.
Jan 26, 2024

Tesla is Becoming EXTREMELY Oversold (at least near-term).

Telsa’s 30% drop in less than one month has taken it to the kind of oversold level that has only been exceeded ONCE since it went public.  So, it should be getting ripe for at least some sort of short-term bounce very soon. 
Jan 25, 2024

Energy Stocks are Poised to Outperform Going Forward

WTI crude oil is testing a KEY resistance level.  If it is broken, it will confirm a change in trend to the upside for the commodity.  This, in turn, should be VERY bullish for the energy stocks…given that they have lagged behind crude oil significantly over the past 4-6 weeks.
Jan 24, 2024

A Divergence has Developed Between the Stock and Bond Market

The breakout in the chip stocks is very bullish.  However, a divergence has developed between the bond and stock market that could/should create at least some headwinds for stocks before too long.
Jan 23, 2024

What is Bitcoin's Recent Decline Telling Us?

Bitcoin has broken some near-term support levels.  That’s negative over the near-term, but it doesn’t tell us much at all about it’s longer-term potential.  History tells us that the decline since the “ETF decision” is not something that is overly bearish for the longer-term.
Jan 22, 2024

The Outlook for Global Growth Continues to be Worrisome

We’re getting more and more signs that growth outside the U.S. is getting worse.  (In fact, there are even some signs that it’s creating headwinds for the U.S. already.)
Jan 21, 2024

Nice New All-Time Highs, But The Geopolitical Risks Are Very High As Well

The new all-time highs are great, but the stock market is priced for perfection. The situation in the Middle East is escalating buy the day. That's dangerous.
Jan 19, 2024

It's Dangerous that Investors are Completely Ignoring the Escalating Situation in the Middle East

it's great that the NDX Nasdaq 100 is breaking out, but investors still NEED to keep some defensive positions...given the escalating situation in the Middle East.
Jan 18, 2024

Can The Chip Stocks Breakout?

Better earnings and guidance have the semiconductor stocks rallying this morning.  If this can push the SMH semiconductor ETF to a meaningful and sustained higher-high (above its all-time highs), it should be bullish for the broad market as well. 
Jan 17, 2024

Reversal of the "Rotation Game" in the Stock Market?

The broader Russell 2000 & S&P 500 Equal Weight indexes are not just underperforming, but they're declining. That's not good for the stock market overall.
Jan 16, 2024

Is South Korea's KOSPI Index Sending Up Warning Signals About Global Growth?

If the KOSPI drop continues…and it falls below tis December lows, it’s going to raise the odds that a “double top” has been formed on this key indicator for global growth. 
Jan 14, 2024

The Real Issue in the Middle East is Israel's Concerns Over Iran Becoming a Nuclear Power

The real issue in the Middle East is Israel's concern about Iran becoming a nuclear power. So, the odds that it will become a regional conflict are high
Jan 12, 2024

WTI Crude Oil is Not Dead Yet

With the situation in the Middle East deteriorating further, the price of oil is rising.  In fact, many people will likely be surprised to know that WTI is close to signaling an upside change in trend for crude oil.
Jan 11, 2024

The Bank Stocks Stand at a Pivotal Point

The bank stocks have seen a mild pullback recently.  Tomorrow’s earnings reports (and the ones from next week) should go a long way to telling us if the weakness will continue…or if the upside will reassert itself…for this very important group in the stock market.
Jan 10, 2024

Is The Fed Really Going To Be Pre-emptive?

The markets have gone a long way to pricing-in the thought that the Fed will engage in a “pre-emptive easing” policy in 2024. Since it’s something the Fed has not followed that strategy in the past, it leaves the markets extremely vulnerable if they do not engage in this strategy. 
Jan 9, 2024

We're Seeing a "head fake"...But In Which Direction???

We’re likely seeing a “head fake” in the market right now.  Thankfully, the battle lines are very well drawn…and we’ll know which situation was the head fake…once one of two levels on the S&P 500 is broken in a meaningful manner. 
Jan 8, 2024

What Is China's Stock Market Telling US About Global Growth in 2024?

"If China's stock market continues to decline, it’s certainly going to raise some more questions about China’s growth…AND given that they are the second biggest global economy, it’s going to raise some more questions about global growth next year as well."
Jan 7, 2024

Without Continued Excess Liquidity Flows, 2024 Is Going To Be A Very Volitile Year

Last week's action caused some technical damage to be done in several markets. Thus, if these trends continue, some warning flags will be raised quite soon.
Jan 5, 2024

John "Bluto" Blutarsky Would Be Very Proud!

We’d just like to congratulate Oklahoma State’s QB, Alan Bowman, who has received a seventh year of eligibility from the NCAA to play college football.  John “Bluto” Blutarsky would be very proud.  (Maybe Mr. Bowman will become a senator some day!!!)  
Jan 4, 2024

More Signs that "Froth" had Returned to the Markets in Late-2023

When stocks get hit hard when they are downgraded for merely "valuation" reasons, it's a sign that there's a lot of "froth" in the marketplace.
Jan 3, 2024

Some Cracks are Showing Up in the Small Cap Rally

Yesterday's decline was not isolated to the tech arena.  We’re also seeing some cracks in the small-cap Russell 2000 index. We'll be watching its MACD chart for clues how this will play out going forward.
Jan 2, 2024

Bitcoin is Breaking Key Resistance. What's its Next Target?

If Bitcoin can hold above $45,000, we have a very good idea of where it's next target will be in the coming days/weeks.
Dec 31, 2023

Are Investors Being Blinded By The Recent Parabolic Rally?

The recent parabolic rally is causing investors to ignore many historically reliable signs that an important top could very well be on the horizon.
Dec 29, 2023

Watching Apple and Nvidia

AAPL & NVDA are testing very important resistance levels. Whether these stocks can break their resistance levels…or they rollover in a significant way…is going to be extremely important for how they act in Q1 of next year.  It could/should be important for the broad market as well.
Dec 28, 2023

The Action in the U.S. Dollar Should be VERY Important in Q1 2024

The dollar is oversold short-term & due for a bounce. However, longer-term, its July lows will be VERY important support (and it's not too far from those summer lows).
Dec 27, 2023

The Russell 2000 holds the key for 2024

Whether the Russell 2000 can see more upside follow-through...or rolls back over...in Q1 of 2024 should be very important for the broad stock market for all of next year,
Dec 21, 2023

Why Doesn't the "0dte" Options Issue Get Any Credit for Exacerbating the Rally?

0dte options exacerbated at least some of the big rally we've seen recently. But it works in both directions, so yesterday's decline could become commonplace if we get some negative developments.
Dec 20, 2023

Parabolic Rallies Are Great While They Last, but.....

There are a lot of reasons to think the stock market can move higher going forward…maybe even substantially higher.  However, we just think it’s important to consider the real situation we’re seeing right now.  Let’s face it, when was the last time a parabolic rally ended well?
Dec 19, 2023

China's Stock Market Stands at a Precarious Level

China’ stock market is actually down on the year.  If it falls any further in 2024, it’s going to be VERY negative.  It’s also going to signal that the global economy is going to face the kind of more serious headwinds that the U.S. stock market is not seeing right now.
Dec 18, 2023

The Energy Sector Just Might Be A Surprising Outperformer in Q1 2024

WTI crude oil is bouncing off an important support level from an oversold condition. Thus, the energy stocks could surprise people in early 2024 if crude oil can rally much further.
Dec 17, 2023

What Is The Fed Seeing On The Horizon...To Have Pivoted So Quickly On Rate Cuts???

The stock market continues to act fabulously. However, does the Fed really want to inflate another bubble by cutting rates? What are they really seeing on the horizon?
Dec 15, 2023

GREAT Rally, But the Russell 2000 is Getting VERY Overbought Short-Term

The Russell 2000 (led by the regional banks) have had a GREAT run. However, they're both getting VERY overbought on a short-term basis. So be careful about chasing them near-term.
Dec 14, 2023

Did Powell Just Give Investors a (further) Big Green Light?

Chairman Powell did not throw any cold water whatsoever on the recent narrative that says the Fed will cut rates in a meaningful way next year yesterday.  Assuming this doesn’t mean the Fed is now worried about a recession; it has given investors the green light.
Dec 13, 2023

Fed Day....But Also Keep An Eye On Gold

Like we thought it would, gold has pulled-back over the past two weeks.  However, if it can bounce from a level above $1,950ish any time soon, it will raise the odds considerably that the yellow metal will finally break above its incredibly important long-term resistance level. 
Dec 12, 2023

The Regional Banks Could/Should be a Key Indicator Going Forward

The KRE regional bank ETF is testing a VERY important resistance level right now.  However, it has also reached a very overbought condition.  Whether this ETF can break above its summer highs…or rolls back over…will be very important for the broad stock market in the coming days/weeks. 
Dec 11, 2023

Be Careful About Chasing the (very) Overbought Housing Stocks

If the data is stronger than expected…or the Fed is a bit less dovish than they have been recently…it could cause a surprising move in the bond market.  It could also have an outsized impact on the housing stocks…which have become VERY overbought on a near-term basis. 
Dec 10, 2023

Will CPI or the Fed Disrupt the Overbought Bond Market Next Week?

The bond market is quite overbought (and so yields are oversold). Thus, if the CPI data or the Fed surprises the markets this week, it could cause problem for bond investors near term.
Dec 8, 2023

The Stock Market Has Actually Been Range-Bound Recently

We saw a nice rally in the stock market yesterday, but the S&P 500 and NDX 100 have both been still stuck in a sideways range for two weeks.  Will today’s employment report be the catalyst to break them out of their ranges???
Dec 7, 2023

Both the Stock Market and Crude Oil Stand at Key Junctures

WTI crude oil is getting oversold, so it should bounce soon.  However, the $70ish level is a VERY important support level. So, if it breaks below that level in a meaningful way in the coming weeks, it will force us to rethink our bullish longer-term stance on this commodity. 
Dec 5, 2023

The Small-cap Stocks Are Getting Overbought

The large-cap tech names are rolling over and the small-cap stocks are getting overbought. If they both fall at the same time, it's going to be rough for the broad market near-term.
Dec 4, 2023

Big-cap Tech In Trouble?....Nice Breakout in Bitcoin, But It's Overbought Near-term

Bitcoin has broken out in a big way.  We do need to point out that it’s getting quite overbought on a short-term basis, so investors should be careful about chasing it near-term.  However, this breakout is very positive on an intermediate/longer-term technical basis.
Dec 3, 2023

The Tech Sector Is Suddenly Quite Vulnerable

The technical “set up” for the tech stocks is extremely poor right now. If it doesn't bounce strongly & immediately, it could be in for a very rough month.
Dec 1, 2023

Is There Something Wrong With The Housing Stocks?

After a very strong rally early in November, the home builders have done nothing over the past two week…even though rates have continued to fall in a meaningful way.  Is this just a normal “breather”…or is it telling us something about the group…and thus the economy?
Nov 30, 2023

Stocks are not Following Bond So Far This Week.

After a month of an incredibly strong directional correlation between the Treasury market and the stock market, that correlation is starting to break down this week....which seem to indicate that the stock market’s rally is getting a bit tired on a short-term basis.
Nov 29, 2023

Treasury Yields Testing Another Important Support Level

After breaking below the “neckline” of a “head & shoulders” pattern and a multi-month trend-line, long term bond yields are now testing another important support level.  If (repeat, IF) it can break meaningful below that level, it’s going to be even more bullish for bonds.
Nov 28, 2023

Will December 2023 repeat December 2022...just like November did?

The November been exactly like last year’s Nov rally, so it’s not out of the question that we could have a big reversal soon…just like we got in December last year.  If (repeat, IF) that happens, it will catch a lot of people offsides. 
Nov 27, 2023

Keep a Close Eye on the Regional Banks

A lot of people are focused on the small-cap Russell 2000 index.  Since the regional banks are heavily weighted in this index, we’ll be watching the action in this group very closely over the next two weeks as well. 
Nov 22, 2023

Marlo Thomas Has Made The World a MUCH Better Place (in more ways than one)

Actress Marlo Thomas has helped change the lives of many, many, many people.  In some ways, her impact has been tremendous.  In other ways, it has been smaller.  Either way, she is a remarkable person.
Nov 21, 2023

Stocks Priced For Perfection.....The Dollar Is Getting Oversold

The stock market and the overbought tech sector are now priced for perfection once again.  Will NVDA provide the kind of perfect earnings report that can push the group (and the market) even higher?
Nov 20, 2023

It Should Be a Very Different Thanksgiving Week

Most of this holiday week's action will come in the second half of the week (after NVDA reports their earnings).
Nov 19, 2023

Lower Inflation Does Not = the Return of "Free Money"

"However, eventually, the stock market is going to realize that a decline in inflation does not mean that the era of “free money” has returned.  Without free money, the stock market cannot maintain today’s high valuation levels."
Nov 17, 2023

GO LAFAYETTE, BEAT LEHIGH!!!

"...the yield on the 10yr Treasury note is approaching a very important support level.  So, it’s something bond investors should be watching closely in the weeks ahead."  
Nov 16, 2023

Nvidia (NVDA) Stands at a Critical Level as Their Earnings Report Looms Large

NVDA has had a GREAT year, but it has been range-bound for months. They report next week...and positive earnings do not guarantee a further rally.
Nov 15, 2023

What Is The Drop In Bond Yields Really Telling Us?

The markets look great right now, but we believe that it is imperative that investors have a plan in place…in advance…if/when it becomes quite evident that the U.S. economy is going to slow in a compelling way in 2024. 
Nov 14, 2023

Stock Market vs. Bond Market: A Football Analogy

If a team goes from giving up a whopping 500 yards a game...to 460 yards a game...it doesn't help much. Similarly, a decline from 5.00% to 4.60% in bond yields won't help stocks for very long.
Nov 13, 2023

Don't Forget The Retailers

The action in the retailers is still important…even though consumers are spending more on “experiences” now-a-days.
Nov 12, 2023

Two Weeks Later...and Another Inflection Point

No matter what happens in the short-term, the stock market still has a lot more “normalizing” to do down the road.
Nov 10, 2023

Thank You Veterans....You Are True Heroes

We want to thank to all of you who have served in our Armed Forces on this Veteran’s Day weekend.  We owe you a debt we can never repay. 
Nov 9, 2023

Bitcoin's Breakout is Very Impressive

Bitcoin is getting overbought, so it could see some sort of breather soon, but its breakout rally has been very impressive this fall.
Nov 8, 2023

Key Break-Down In Crude Oil

Crude oil has broken well below its key support level, but the energy stocks have not fallen as much.  If WTI crude stays below $80, those energy stocks are going to become more vulnerable over the near-term.
Nov 7, 2023

The Boring Consumer Staples Group Is Outperforming

The consumer staples group is not the sexiest one in the world, but it should help investors maximize their gains between now and the end of the year.
Nov 6, 2023

VERY Nice Bounce. More Follow-Through Is Needed

Since bond yields are still very high....and since earnings forecasts have actually declined over the past the months…the stock market needs to see more upside follow-through to declare the worst is behind it.
Nov 4, 2023

Nice Jump...Will it End in the Thrill of Victory or the Agony of Defeat?

Will last week's rally be "the third time is a charm"...or "three stocks and you're out"?
Nov 3, 2023

The Only Technical Levels That Really Matter Right Now

"How the market acts over the next week or two is going to be incredibly important for how the stock market acts over the rest of the year." 
Nov 2, 2023

Moving From One Critical Juncture...To A New One

Nice bounce off the critical support level for the stock market. Now, the question is, does it break above its resistance levels?
Oct 31, 2023

The Healthcare Sector is Very Oversold and Due for a Rally

The XLV healthcare ETF has reached the kind of oversold condition that has been followed by strong rallies over the past two years.
Oct 30, 2023

Two Steps Froward, Three Steps Back?

Will the recent trend continue...where the stock market bounces early in the week…only to roll-over later in the week…and close below its previous week’s lows?
Oct 29, 2023

The Stock Market Could See a Short-Term Bounce at Any Time, But its Intermediate-Term Trend has Changed

"Since the stock market is still expensive, why would less than historic rate cuts help the stock market in a substantial manner? The era of free money is over…and investors need to adjust their investment analysis accordingly."
Oct 27, 2023

Is the Middle East Conflict Already Beginning to Spread?

With the U.S. military attacking two facilities in Syria that they say are linked to Iran, it won’t take much more to think that this situation is already becoming a regional conflict.  If this does indeed become the case, the downside potential for the stock market will almost certainly grow. 
Oct 26, 2023

We're at the Brink of a Confirmed Change in Trend for the Stock Market

"Unless these indices bounce immediately and strongly…and in a sustainable way…we’ll have confirmation of an important change in trend for the stock market."
Oct 25, 2023

We Ask Again: What is Wrong with the Big Financial Stocks???

"With five of the biggest and most powerful financial stocks in the U.S. falling 20%-30% from their 2023 highs…when the S&P 500 is down just 7.4% from its own highs…it raises some serious questions about the outlook for the U.S. economy and for the broad stock market."
Oct 24, 2023

Bitcoin Breakout

Bitcoin has broken out in a significant way.  It’s getting very overbought near-term, so it should be due for a pullback soon.  However, as long as it can hold $32k on any decline, the breakout should be confirmed. 
Oct 23, 2023

Big-Tech Earnings This Week, But Don't Forget About Nvidia's Example!

If a stock like NVDA can decline in a substantial way in the face of FABULOUS earnings, then it’s not out of the question that still expensive stocks just might have a tough time in this high interest rate environment as well. 
Oct 22, 2023

The Markets Stand at a CRITITCAL Juncture (and Whether We Get a Soft Landing or Not is Immaterial).

Neither "solid earnings” nor a “soft landing” will be enough to save the stock market from a correction before long.
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