Archive

Jun 24, 2024

The Tech Stocks Will be Key This Week. (Duh)

Overbought groups can see outsized declines…even if their fundamental outlook remains strong.
Jun 18, 2024

One Group is Seeing a Great "Set-up" For a Big Advance

A divergence has developed between crude oil & the energy stocks. So, if yesterday's breakout in WTI holds, the energy stocks will have some catching up to do.
Jun 17, 2024

Earnings Estimates HAVE to Improve Significantly if the Market is Going to Advance More Than it Already Has

The earnings estimates for the second half of this year…and for 2025…are going to HAVE to improve for the market to rally a lot more than it already has this year.  Excess liquidity won’t be around forever, so the “E” part of the forward “P/E” ratio is going to have to improve in a meaningful way.
Jun 16, 2024

This VERY "Narrow" Rally Is Becoming Vulnerable Near-Term

The stock market continues to rally, but it's VERY "narrow" and it's now getting quite overbought near-term.
Jun 14, 2024

Root For The Celtics! (Your Financial Future Could Depend On It!!!)

The situation in Europe is starting to get a little dicey.  This could create problems for the stock market…given how expensive and overbought that it has become. 
Jun 13, 2024

The Treasury Market Stands at a CRITICAL level

The Treasury market is testing a key level.  If this level is broken, it’s going to be extremely important for the bond market overall…and will have major implications for the fixed income asset class.
Jun 12, 2024

Apple Helps the Market Pass its First Test of the Week...The Next (Bigger) Test Comes Today

The rally in AAPL to a new all-time high will be quite bullish on a technical basis for the stock (assuming it doesn’t reverse quickly).  This will be true if one other Mag 7 stock also see more upside follow-through (and we’re not talking about Nvidia).
Jun 10, 2024

Can Apple Pass Its "Where's the Beef" test?

Two key tech stocks stand at critical levels on a technical basis this week (NVDA & AAPL).  How AAPL answers the, “Where’s the beef” question…should play an important role today. 
Jun 9, 2024

Apple, CPI, Fed, Auctions: Lots to Decipher Next Week. So, It Could Be a Critical One.

It’s still going to be extremely difficult for the Fed to begin cutting rates in time to prevent a significant slowdown in growth.  They’ve only been able to do it once in 80 years…and with inflation remaining somewhat sticky, that will make it even harder than usual this time around. 
Jun 7, 2024

"You Can't Fight In Here, This Is the War Room!"

The Game Stop saga is making a fool out of some investors...and it's the sign of an unhealthy stock market.
Jun 6, 2024

Is a "Narrow" Rally Always a Poor Rally?

The rally to yet another record in the stock market was a “narrow” one once again.  However, to a certain degree, it makes total sense that this rally is a narrow one.  That doesn’t guarantee that it will continue, but it DOES make sense.
Jun 5, 2024

Several Different Markets Are Suddenly Signaling a Material Slowdown

The moves in several different markets are suddenly indicating that a material slow down in growth is on the horizon.  That might not seem possible in an election year, but if the three charts we highlight today continue to decline, it will raise some real questions about U.S. growth.
Jun 4, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Is Testing a Critical Technical Support Area

If WTI breaks more significantly below its key support level, it's going to be quite bearish on a technical basis.
Jun 3, 2024

We're Looking At One Surprising Group That Has Some Very Strong Upside Potential

There is one group that could see a surprisingly strong rally over the coming months…if their ETF breaks above its key resistance level.
Jun 2, 2024

If Tech Sees a Material Pullback, "Rotation" Will Turn Into "Selling"

The tech sector is so heavily weighted in the major averages that a drop in the group will cause a meaningful drop in those indices. THAT will cause investors to top "rotating," and to start "selling."
May 31, 2024

"Rotation" Isn't Always Good in the Stock Market.....Also, Europe is Showing a Few Cracks

The recent "rotation" in the stock market has really been a "churning" action...which tends to be near-term bearish after a nice advance.
May 30, 2024

Commercial Real Estate is Quickly Becoming a Concern Once Again

A new report shows that the big banks have higher exposure to commercial real estate than is widely known.
May 29, 2024

What's Going On With The Global Bond Markets?

"Given the proclivity of both parties in Washington DC to ignore the budgetary problems they face, it’s hard to think that the supply/demand equation is going to improve in a significant way for the Treasury market…especially with the Fed pushing the “high for longer” mantra so hard recently."
May 28, 2024

WTI Crude Oil: "The Battle of the 200s"

If Iran continues to move closer to becoming a nuclear power, the war in the Middle East will expand in a substantial manner.
May 26, 2024

After Zero Growth Last Year, 11% Earnings Growth This Year Is Not Enough

The stock market rallied 25% last year on ZERO earnings growth. Thus, it's going to have to have much higher than 10%-11% in future years to justify today's market levels. (There's a REASON the market is expensive!!!)
May 24, 2024

A Poor Reaction to Good News is Never Encouraging

The action in the broad stock market yesterday…after such fabulous earnings/guidance out of Nvidia…was very disappointing.  The “internals” from yesterday…and some other technical developments…are pointing to the possibility of a reversal in the stock market before too long. 
May 23, 2024

Nvidia's 10 for 1 Stock Split Should Create More Demand for the Stock, But it Could Create More Volatility Down the Road

The 10 for 1 stock split for NVDA could/should attract more individual investors for the stock, but it should also do the same for its options.  That could be bullish near-term, BUT it could also create more volatility when the stock sees any (inevitable) corrections in the future. 
May 22, 2024

We Will Be Honoring Our Fallen Heroes This Weekend.

No matter how you feel about what is going on in our country today, we hope you will consider flying the American flag this weekend.  Doing so merely honors those who have given “the last full measure of devotion” to their country…….Our flag will be flying all weekend. 
May 21, 2024

What Do Ethereum and Wheat Have in Common?

Actually, Ethereum and wheat have almost nothing in common, but their moves over the coming weeks could still be very important...on several fronts.
May 20, 2024

Be VERY Careful About Chasing Copper Up At These Levels

No asset moves in a straight line...no matter how good or bad its prospects might be. Copper is now at the kind of overbought level that if frequently followed by material pullbacks.
May 17, 2024

It's Still All About Liquidity

1)  Slight break above the all-time highs.  Will the stock market breakout…or form a “double-top”??? 2)  History shows that Fed rate cuts…after an aggressive tightening cycle…are BEARISH for stock, NOT bullish!
May 16, 2024

A Very Short-Term "Breather" is Quite Likely Right Now for the Stock Market

The stock market saw a nice new breakout to an all-time high yesterday. However, it likely needs to take a short-term “breather” after the recent strong advance…..We cannot count out a “double-top” on its longer-term chart, so the market is still at a key level. 
May 15, 2024

Will the Meme-Stock Revival Disappear as Quickly as it Reappeared?

The data over the past month has been weaker than expected.  How is this going to create the kind of VERY strong growth in earnings that the consensus is looking for in the second half of this year? 
May 14, 2024

Forget About GME and Focus on the Stocks That Have Sustainable Potential

We have become more constructive on the energy stocks…and we’ll become outright bullish if WTI crude oil can break above $80 in a meaningful way.  One stock that looks particularly intriguing to us on a technical basis…if it crude oil can indeed move above that $80 level in a significant manner. 
May 13, 2024

This Week Should be a CRITICAL One for the Stock Market

We might not like it when one data point becomes extremely important for the outlook on the stock market, but there is little question that this happens from time to time....This week is one of those times.
May 12, 2024

Thank Goodness For All Of The Stimulus, But The Steroids Cannot Last Forever

This earnings season has actually only been "okay." Bond yields are still very high vs. the past 17 years. Thus, this week's inflation data will be EXTREMELY important.
May 10, 2024

What's Up with the Lower Volume in Tech?

What’s going on with the implosion of volume in the QQQ’s this week?  Could this be a sign that the demand for the tech sector is waning?  It’s too early to draw that conclusion just yet, but investors just might have to be a lot more nimble going forward.
May 9, 2024

We're Still Keeping a Very Close Eye on Crude Oil

WTI crude oil has seen some positive developments since we highlighted it as being quite oversold two days ago. Therefore, if it can rally any further…and take-out an important resistance level…it should run quite nicely…very soon. 
May 8, 2024

This Rally Needs to Broaden Out More in Order to be Sustainable

The bounce off the April lows for the stock market has been a narrow one.  That’s not the end of the world, but it would be a lot more positive if this rally can broaden out over the coming days and weeks…given that the market is a lot more expensive than it was at this time last year. 
May 7, 2024

Crude Oil Looks Ripe for a Nice Bounce on a Technical Basis

WTI crude oil is testing a key support level.  However, it has also reached the kind of oversold condition that has been followed by strong bounces in the past.  Therefore, we believe this commodity (and its related stocks) look very enticing right here. 
May 6, 2024

Our Most Important Call of the Year (BY FAR)!!!

This is the most important note we’ll send out all year.  No, this has nothing to do with any market analysis.  It has to do with reminding you to make your Mother’s Day arrangements RIGHT NOW.  DO NOT WAIT another minute.  The rest of your life could depend on this!!!
May 5, 2024

Nice Week Last Week, But We're Not Out of the Woods Yet

The markets had a nice week last week, but they still need to see more upside follow-through to confirm that the worst is behind us.
May 3, 2024

The Strategies that Worked Over the Past 6 Months...Will Not Necessarily Be What Works for the Rest of 2024

How many people realize that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has only traded higher than where it stands today for FIVE weeks over the past 17 years?  With valuations elevated, that should change investors strategies.
May 2, 2024

Apple's All-Important Support/Resistance Levels are Very Well Defined as They Report Their Earnings Today

AAPL reports earnings after the close. If one of the distinct support/resistance levels is broken in a meaningful way, it should be a very important signal as to where the stock is headed over the rest of Q2…(and probably beyond).
May 1, 2024

Sometimes "Better Than Expected" Is Not Enough

As we have been saying for some time now, the recent “set up” in the stock market is very reminiscent of what we saw last August.  After a huge rally in the stock market…and a significant rise in bond yields…even good earnings were not enough to prevent a correction from taking place. 
Apr 30, 2024

Meaningfully Higher Bond Yields Always Create Headwinds for Stocks Eventually

Just because higher long-term bond yields have not had an impact on the stock market yet, it does not mean it’s something that investors can ignore.  In fact, history tells us that higher yields are FREQUENTLY ignored for many months…only to create significant headwinds eventually. 
Apr 29, 2024

$60k is Critical Support for Bitcoin

Even if Bitcoin is headed a lot higher over the longer-term, a break below $60k would signal that it will likely see an intermediate-term correction.
Apr 28, 2024

The Outlook for the Second Half of 2024 Looks Good, But There are Still Some Near-term Storm Clouds to Consider

It's an election year, so the market should see a nice second half of the year for the markets. However, last week's set up was actually something that could create more weakness near-term.
Apr 26, 2024

As Usual, The Chip Stocks Will Be Key Going Forward

After a 15% decline from the March highs, the SMH semiconductor ETF is bouncing from an oversold condition.  Whether the bounce in this all-important leadership group has legs or not as we move into the merry month of May should be very important for the rest of the stock market.
Apr 25, 2024

META Confirms that "Guidance" is More Important Than Usual this Earnings Season

Meta’s disappointing guidance raises the odds that this earnings season will not create the kind of increase in earnings expectations for 2024 & 2025 that is needed to help the stock market rally further from its current expensive level. (It also raises the odds that a full-blown correction.)
Apr 24, 2024

Microsoft's Earnings/Guidance will be Particularly Important this Week.

MSFT stands at a key level on a technical basis.  Therefore, how it reacts to its earnings/guidance is going to be very important for the stock on an intermediate-term basis.  (Longer-term, its prospects are still excellent.)
Apr 23, 2024

The Regional Banks Stand at a Key Technical Juncture

The KRE bank ETF has formed a “descending triangle” pattern…and whichever way it breaks out of this pattern in the coming days and weeks should be quite important for how it acts of the rest of 2024.
Apr 22, 2024

Just "Beating Expctations" This Earnings Season Won't Be Enough!

Ignore the data about how many companies beat expectations (the majority of them ALWAYS do).  Instead, focus on the guidance. It's going to HAVE to be good enough to raise the consensus estimates in materially for both 2024 & 2025…if the stock market is going to bounce back in significant fashion. 
Apr 14, 2024

High for Longer...and Increased Tensions in the Middle East...Not a Bullish Combination.

Expensive markets to not respond well when a key leg to the bullish stool is removed..and geopolitical conditions stresses rise in a meaningful way.
Apr 12, 2024

Big Cap Tech is a "Flight to Safety" Play Once Again...Will It Last?

Since the gold and oil markets have been pricing in a meaningful impact on the marketplace from this crisis…it’s not out of the question that the stock market will follow those other markets and see an outsized reaction before long
Apr 11, 2024

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Suddenly Looks Vulnerable.

If the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index falls much more from current levels, it’s going to send up a big warning flag on this part of the stock market…on a technical basis.
Apr 10, 2024

Banks/Financials Are Sitting at a KEY Technical Juncture

Later this week (and early next week), we get some KEY bank earnings.  Given the technical make up of the KBE bank ETF (and the XLF financial stock ETF)…these earnings could be VERY important as to how this group and sector acts as we move through the second quarter.
Apr 9, 2024

A Few Cracks Showing Up In European Stocks

We’re seeing some cracks in Europe’s stock market…so if that market falls much further from here, it will raise some warning flags.  That, in turn, would signal that this market is going to have a much harder time keeping up with the U.S. market.
Apr 8, 2024

Almost the Entire Bond Market Sits at a Precarious Level on the Technical Side of the Ledger

The CPI number has become a very important data point over the last couple of years.  This week’s will be particularly important…because SEVERAL AREAS of the fixed income market are on the cusp of signaling a VERY important change in trend. 
Apr 7, 2024

Stock Traders Should Be More Concerned About the Middle East (in the way that commodity traders have become).

As the stock market shook off the developments in the Middle East on Friday, gold and oil kept rallying strongly. This tells us that equity investors are too complacent.
Apr 5, 2024

Yep, the Risks in the Marketplace are Definitely Growing

Investors need to be much less complacent about the situation in the Middle East.
Apr 4, 2024

The Energy Sector is Quite Overbought on a Short-Term Basis

The energy stocks are getting quite overbought on a short-term basis.  In fact, stocks like COP have only been more overbought twice over the past 35 years.  Thus, they’re getting ripe for a near-term pullback.
Apr 3, 2024

Don't Be Complacent About the Rising Tensions in the Middle East

The situation in the Middle East has become much more dangerous over the past few days. So, the risks are rising in this expensive/overbought market.
Apr 2, 2024

There Are Some VERY Important Technical Developments Taking Shape This Morning!

We are seeing some VERY important moves in the charts on the US 10yr Treasury note, Crude Oil, and Bitcoin this morning....Warning signals are flashing!!!
Mar 28, 2024

Will Tech's Mediocre March Create Any Problems Going Forward?

Believe it or not, the XLK tech ETF had a flat March...and its weekly MACD chart is sending up some real warning signals.
Mar 28, 2024

Be Careful About the Financial Stocks Near-Term

JPM has become the most overbought it has EVER been by one measure...and Visa & Mastercard are seeing some cracks in their charts.  Thus the financial sector look vulnerable over the near-term.
Mar 27, 2024

Investors Will Have 3 days to Ponder Friday's Inflation Data

When an important inflation news is reported, the market responds immediately. This week, the markets won’t be able to react to it for three full days.  When people have a lot of time to think about an important data point, the reaction can sometimes be an outsized one.
Mar 26, 2024

More Records Before the End of Q1?

We do need to point out, however, that some stocks are getting overbought.  In fact, Micron (MU) is becoming extremely overbought.  Therefore, it’s one that will be ripe for a pullback as we move into the early part of Q2 (even if it’s going to eventually rally more as we go through the year). 
Mar 25, 2024

More Firms are Waking Up to the Fact that the Earnings Picture is Not Improving

There’s a good reason why the multiple on the S&P 500 has exploded higher over the past year: earnings estimates have not improved.  So, if the earnings outlook doesn’t improve significantly soon, it’s going to create headwinds for the stock market.
Mar 23, 2024

Did Chairman Powell Signal that the "Fed Put" is Still Alive and Well Last Week?

Chairman Powell seemed to give investors the green light for "risk on"...but it will not give us a healthy rally.....Stay nimble my friends!
Mar 21, 2024

Don't Just Focus on the Hottest Stocks

The hottest stocks could/should continue to do well if the market keeps on chugging higher.  However, there are some other names that could also help the investors’ performance over the rest of the year. 
Mar 20, 2024

Today's Fed Announcement Will Be More Important Than Usual

The Fed’s rate announcements and the Chairman’s press conferences are always important.  However, with Treasury yields testing key resistance levels, these events are going to be particularly important this time around.
Mar 19, 2024

There are Reasons to Think that Liquidity will Become Less Plentiful

There are a few reasons to think that the level of liquidity sloshing around the system might become a bit less plentiful as we move into the spring months.  That will make some of the risk assets that have become overbought (and in many cases, quite expensive) very vulnerable over the near-term.
Mar 18, 2024

The Real Story Behind Kirk Cousin's Big NFL Contract

Is the news out of GOOGL/AAPL the catalyst for another big rally leg for the stock market? We think not.
Mar 16, 2024

Stock Prices and Valuations are Very Elevated...Therefore, so are the Risks.

Wall Street should be spending more time telling investors that the level of risk has become elevated over the past several weeks.
Mar 15, 2024

We're Seeing Signs that Investors are Now "Selling"...and Not Just "Rotating."

With more big-cap tech names showing some cracks, investors are starting to just sell...instead of "rotating" into other sectors.
Mar 14, 2024

Rising Commodity Prices are Adding to the Renewed Concerns Over Inflation

The big jump in copper…along with the further rise in crude oil…are adding to the questions about how much further inflation will fall…and whether it will start to climb once again.  This has important implications for the bond market…and it’s something the stock market cannot ignore forever. 
Mar 13, 2024

Bitcoin's Rally Has Been Relentless, But it's Now Getting Extremely Overbought

Bitcoin’s rally has been incredible in recent weeks. However, it’s also getting extremely overbought.  Therefore, even if it is headed a lot higher this year, the odds are very high that it will see some sort of meaningful decline soon…in order to work-off this overbought condition.
Mar 12, 2024

Add the Financial Stocks to the List of Very Overbought Sectors

We can add the XLF financial stock ETF to the list of groups that have become quite overbought.  It could still rally a bit more, but it should start some sort of material pullback very soon. 
Mar 11, 2024

The Correction in the Big-Cap Tech Names Seems to be Spreading

There will be a lot of focus on tomorrow’s CPI inflation report, but the main focus this week will remain on the big-cap tech names.  If the recent weakness in AAPL, TSLA, and GOOGL spills over into NVDA, META, AMZN…it’s going to cause a meaningful pullback in the major stock averages. 
Mar 9, 2024

We See a Correction for the Stock Market Beginning Very Soon

We think that we’ve come to a juncture where we will see some sort of material pullback in the stock market…even if it’s not a major top for the stock market just yet.
Mar 8, 2024

There's Too Much Froth in the Stock Market...A Pullback is Coming Soon

The stock market now getting very overbought.  Therefore, it is now getting ripe for a material pullback to work off this condition.  With this in mind, investors should use the next week or so to raise some cash and get a bit more defensive. 
Mar 7, 2024

The Market Looks Great for Today's Session, But It's Getting Ripe for a Pullback

Even though the stock market looks good for today’s action…and could still rise a bit further in the next week…it is becoming very overbought.  Therefore, investors should expect a material pullback that begins before the month of March is over. 
Mar 6, 2024

Nvidia's Stock is a Monster, But it's also the Most Overbought it has EVER Been!

NVDA has now become the most overbought it has EVER been by a couple of measures.  So, if this fabulous stock joins other tech names with a pullback in the next week or so, it’s going to create some problems for the stock market over the near-term. 
Mar 5, 2024

Gold is Breaking Out...and the Gold Miners Should Outperform the Commodity

Gold is breaking its all-important resistance level.  If history is any guide, the gold miners will outperform the commodity in a meaningful way…if gold does indeed rally strongly.
Mar 4, 2024

We Could See Some Interesting Swings This Week, But......

There is definitely some froth in the marketplace right now. No matter how you slice it, froth or no froth, many assets are becoming quite overbought on a short-term basis.  Therefore, even the biggest bulls should looking for some sort of pullback before too long. 
Mar 3, 2024

GREAT Momentum in the Markets, But We Should See a Short-Term Breather Before Long

We think the market can still see a bit more upside follow-through over the very-short-term.  However, it is getting to the kind of overbought and over-loved level that is usually followed by pullback that last more than just a few days…and take the market down by more than just 2%-3%. 
Mar 1, 2024

Techs? Sure...But Watch the Banks and Crude Oil as Well Today

The news from NYCB raises further questions about the regional banks....However, crude oil is close to breaking out. THAT would be very bullish for the energy stocks.
Feb 29, 2024

Can the Homebuilders Continue to Ignore Today's Higher Yields/Rates?

As we've been saying, today's inflation report could/should have an important impact on Treasury yields and stock sectors like the Russell 2000. It should be important for the housing stocks as well.
Feb 28, 2024

The Small Cap Stocks Stand at a Critical Juncture

Tomorrow's inflation data could be important for both the bond market and the stock market. The reaction to that data on the 10yr yield and the Russell 2000 will be key.
Feb 27, 2024

Too Much Money is Chasing the Flavor of the Day

The huge moves in stocks with the most momentum on any given day is a sign of an unhealthy market.
Feb 26, 2024

Is the Biotech Sector Poised for an Upside Breakout?

The IBB biotech ETF is testing a KEY resistance level. If it breaks above that level in any meaningful way, it's going to be VERY bullish for the group on a technical basis.
Feb 25, 2024

Lots of Opportunities Inside AND Outside Tech, BUT the Risks are Definitely Rising

The momentum in the stock market is tremendous, and it's not just the tech stocks. However, bond yields are high and earnings ar NOT rising. So the risks are higher than normal.
Feb 23, 2024

Is Your "AI Portfolio" Properly Weighted?

It's not whether you're overweight Nvidia. It's whether you're overweight enough!
Feb 22, 2024

Don't Just Focus on Tech Today! There are Other Opportunities as Well!

Tech is (rightfully) the #1 focus today. However, we're seeing a development in another sector that is signaling that it will outperform nicely in the months ahead.
Feb 21, 2024

While You're Waiting for Nvidia to Report, Take a Look at Gold

The DXY dollar index is suddenly showing signs of weakness.  If it falls much further from here, it could/should signal more weakness going forward.  If that…or any other issue…causes gold to break above its all-important resistance level, it’s going to be EXTREMELY bullish for the yellow metal. 
Feb 20, 2024

Nvidia: Great Earnings Are Not Always Enough To Rally Its Stock

As we learned last August, sometimes Nvidia's stock gives us a "sell the news" reaction to its earnings...even when they're fabulouos.
Feb 18, 2024

Look for More Volatility as We Now Enter a Seasonally Tougher Time for the Stock Market

Despite was some pundits are trying to say, this rally is STILL a VERY narrow. Therefore, it NEEDS broaden out a lot more than the very mild move we've seen recently.
Feb 16, 2024

Is the Russell 2000 on the Cusp of an Important Breakout?

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index has moved back above the $2,000 level again.  If it can follow this with a meaningful and sustainable break above its December highs, it’s going to be very bullish for this index on a technical basis. 
Feb 15, 2024

A Stock Market Pullback Would Actually Be Normal...AND Healthy!

With the bond market moving in a different direction than the stock market…and with some stocks (not just SMCI) seeing parabolic rallies…the market is becoming ripe for a pullback.  However, that would be normal...AND healthy!!!
Feb 14, 2024

Will This Morning's Bounce In Stocks Hold If Yields Don't Rollover?

Yes, the stock market could easily continue to rally in a significant way, but it is important to note that a change in trend in the Treasury market is taking place…and thus now is not the time for investors to be complacent.
Feb 13, 2024

The Treasury Market Stands at a Critical Level

Today’s CPI number could be very important for both the bond and the stock markets....given that long-term Treasury yields are testing a very important resistance level…and their prices testing key support. 
Feb 12, 2024

What Do Bitcoin & the CPI Data Have in Common?

Whether the CPI number has an impact or not, we’ll be watching the Treasury market VERY closely this week….because it should have an important impact on the stock market as well.
Feb 11, 2024

Fabulous New Highs For Stocks, But Risks Are Higher Than Normal...So Stay Nimble

The stock market continues to make records, but the risk/reward equation has moved much farther to the side of risk than many investors realize right now…and thus we believe that more than a little bit of caution is warranted.   
Feb 9, 2024

The Economically Sensitive Homebuilders Stand at a Key Juncture

The next big move in the bond market should also have an important impact on the economically sensitive home building stocks.  Whichever way it breaks out of its recent range should tell us a lot about the economy and the broad stock market going forward.
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