Archive
Jul 26, 2024
Next Week Should Be Critical For the Stock Market
With more big-tech earnings, the Fed meeting, and the S&P and Nasdaq at key support levels...next week is going to be a critical one for the stock market.Jul 26, 2024
Nancy Outmaneuvers Barak
How many people realize that the S&P 500, the NDX Nasdaq 100…AND the Russell 2000…have all declined over the past seven trading days? This raises questions about how long the small cap space can hold up if (repeat, IF) the tech stocks continue to decline.Jul 25, 2024
More Evidence That This Might Be A Key Turning Point For The Markets
Several developments (both fundamental & technical) are telling us we could be seeing a key turning point for the markets.....This is especially true given that one key sector is showing signs of an important change in its intermediate-term trend (not just its short-term one.)Jul 24, 2024
Where's The Beef???
There are some more early signs that the MASSIVE investment into AI is not producing revenues/profits as quickly as the stock market has been pricing in over the past year.Jul 23, 2024
Is The Recent Pullback In Tech Something More Than April's Mild Decline?
Earnings and (more importantly) guidance should still be the most important mover of the stock market over the coming weeks...especially for the tech sector.Jul 22, 2024
It Won't Take Long For The Focus To Turn Back Towards This Earnings Season
President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. This is big news…but it does not mean that investors won’t have to pay attention to the current earnings season…or the escalating conflict in the Middle East…or the fact that global technology system partially shut down last week.Jul 21, 2024
The Stock Market Has Become MUCH More Fragile Over The Past Week
The huge technology outage and the tariff proposal on chips...have made this very expensive stock market more vulnerable over the past week.Jul 19, 2024
Has The "Rotation" Move Ended Aleady???
We have another chart this morning which shows that a key leadership group is showing signs that it is rolling over. So, if it sees much more weakness over the coming days and weeks, it will raise a big warning flag.Jul 18, 2024
As Tech Goes...So Goes The Rest Of The Stock Market
We’re sorry, these big-cap tech names are just too heavily weighted in the S&P 500 and NDX 100…for them not to have a significant effect on the rest of the market to the downside…just like they did to the upside from October of 2022 to this summer.Jul 17, 2024
Beware of UFO's (UnForeseen Occurances)
If the tech stocks see a sustainable decline due to the new-news out of the Biden Administration, investors will likely start "rotating" towards cash.Jul 16, 2024
The Small-Cap Stocks Are Getting Quite Overbought
The Russell 2000 is getting quite overbought, so investors need to be careful about chasing these names over the near-term.Jul 15, 2024
Our Focus Is Still On This Earnings Season.
We believe that this earnings season...especially the earnings guidance that will be provided...will be more important than the assassination attempt...for the direction of the stock market over the coming weeks/months.Jul 13, 2024
If the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Meaningfully, History Tells Us That It Will be Negative for Stocks, NOT positive!
If interest rates decline in a meaningful way, it will indicate a significant slowdown in the economy, NOT lower inflation. THAT will be negative for stocks.Jul 12, 2024
A "Rotational" Move is NOT the Same as a "Broadening Out" move!
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 WILL decline substantially if the large-cap tech stocks decline in a significant way…for the simple reason that these stocks are SO highly weighted in those indices.Jul 11, 2024
Two Indices & One Big Stock: All Three are Quite Overbought Near-Term
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 are seeing the kind of overbought conditions that we have not seen since September 2020…just before a correction. Therefore, the stock market could/should be vulnerable to any material negative news we might get over the near-term.Jul 10, 2024
Hold Onto Your Hats, Next Week Could Be An Historic One!
We should also get some dramatic excitement in the realm of politics. In fact, we believe next week will be an historic one for the political arena.Jul 9, 2024
One Very Well-Known Stock is Now Ripe for a Very Strong Bounce
One very well-known stock has reached the kind of oversold level that makes it VERY appealing for a very strong multi-week bounce (and maybe a strong longer-term rally as well).Jul 8, 2024
Shake Up in the Markets this Week???
We thought it would be fun to provide some surprising predictions for who will be on the ticket…for BOTH parties...in this year's Presidential Election.Jul 6, 2024
Earnings Estimates Have to Rise Significantly to Justify a Further Rally in the Stock Market
Earnings forecasts need to improve dramatically to justify this rally in the stock market. We're sorry, but you need better than 8% earnings growth if the S&P is trading at 23x forward earnings.Jul 5, 2024
Elections.....NFP.....Bitcoin's Tumble
Bitcoin has fallen well below its KEY support level. If it does not bounce back strongly and immediately, it will be quite negative for the crypto on a technical basis.Jul 3, 2024
Biden...the Yen...and Bitcoin
It will still take a drop below the early May low of $57,300 to raise a big red warning flag on Bitcoin, but that's now becoming a real possibility.Jul 2, 2024
Were Bond Investors Caught "Wrong Footed" Yesterday?
The bond market saw a very strange move yesterday. It ignored the weaker data…and moved on speculation about the outcome of the November election. Since the election is so far off…and the move in the Treasury market was so large…it signals to us that something else was afoot yesterday.Jul 1, 2024
It Might Not Be The Typically Boring Start To The Month Of July For The Markets
The first week of July tends to be an extremely boring one each year. However, there are several reasons (both political and financial) to think that this might not be the case this year.Jun 30, 2024
Some Other Groups are Going to Outperform Tech in the Second Half of 2024
There are quite a few issues that are percolating around the world today…and any one of them could cause a significant disruption in the marketplace. (God help us if more than one blows up at the same time.)Jun 28, 2024
Breakout Time For The Energy Stocks?
Crude oil is holding above its key resistance level. This should cause the energy stocks to play catch up in a big way going forward…given how much the group has lagged behind its underlying commodity over the past month.Jun 27, 2024
One Very Important Stock Broke a KEY Resistance Level Yesterday!
A lot of investors want to know which stocks and groups will outperform in the second half of this year. Well, one very important stock broke above a critical resistance level yesterday. So, if it can hold that level going forward, it’s going to bode very well for the stock.Jun 26, 2024
Is the Biotech Sector on the Verge of an Important Breakout?
One of the key ETF’s for the biotech sector is showing signs that the group could be on the verge of an important breakout.Jun 25, 2024
Crunch Time For The Bank of Japan
Japan's yen is testing its lows from late-April. Whether the BOJ does something more concrete to defend their currency…or not…will be critical. This is especially true given that the yen has been such an important currency for the “carry trade.”Jun 24, 2024
The Tech Stocks Will be Key This Week. (Duh)
Overbought groups can see outsized declines…even if their fundamental outlook remains strong.Jun 18, 2024
One Group is Seeing a Great "Set-up" For a Big Advance
A divergence has developed between crude oil & the energy stocks. So, if yesterday's breakout in WTI holds, the energy stocks will have some catching up to do.Jun 17, 2024
Earnings Estimates HAVE to Improve Significantly if the Market is Going to Advance More Than it Already Has
The earnings estimates for the second half of this year…and for 2025…are going to HAVE to improve for the market to rally a lot more than it already has this year. Excess liquidity won’t be around forever, so the “E” part of the forward “P/E” ratio is going to have to improve in a meaningful way.Jun 16, 2024
This VERY "Narrow" Rally Is Becoming Vulnerable Near-Term
The stock market continues to rally, but it's VERY "narrow" and it's now getting quite overbought near-term.Jun 14, 2024
Root For The Celtics! (Your Financial Future Could Depend On It!!!)
The situation in Europe is starting to get a little dicey. This could create problems for the stock market…given how expensive and overbought that it has become.Jun 13, 2024
The Treasury Market Stands at a CRITICAL level
The Treasury market is testing a key level. If this level is broken, it’s going to be extremely important for the bond market overall…and will have major implications for the fixed income asset class.Jun 12, 2024
Apple Helps the Market Pass its First Test of the Week...The Next (Bigger) Test Comes Today
The rally in AAPL to a new all-time high will be quite bullish on a technical basis for the stock (assuming it doesn’t reverse quickly). This will be true if one other Mag 7 stock also see more upside follow-through (and we’re not talking about Nvidia).Jun 10, 2024
Can Apple Pass Its "Where's the Beef" test?
Two key tech stocks stand at critical levels on a technical basis this week (NVDA & AAPL). How AAPL answers the, “Where’s the beef” question…should play an important role today.Jun 9, 2024
Apple, CPI, Fed, Auctions: Lots to Decipher Next Week. So, It Could Be a Critical One.
It’s still going to be extremely difficult for the Fed to begin cutting rates in time to prevent a significant slowdown in growth. They’ve only been able to do it once in 80 years…and with inflation remaining somewhat sticky, that will make it even harder than usual this time around.Jun 7, 2024
"You Can't Fight In Here, This Is the War Room!"
The Game Stop saga is making a fool out of some investors...and it's the sign of an unhealthy stock market.Jun 6, 2024
Is a "Narrow" Rally Always a Poor Rally?
The rally to yet another record in the stock market was a “narrow” one once again. However, to a certain degree, it makes total sense that this rally is a narrow one. That doesn’t guarantee that it will continue, but it DOES make sense.Jun 5, 2024
Several Different Markets Are Suddenly Signaling a Material Slowdown
The moves in several different markets are suddenly indicating that a material slow down in growth is on the horizon. That might not seem possible in an election year, but if the three charts we highlight today continue to decline, it will raise some real questions about U.S. growth.Jun 4, 2024
WTI Crude Oil Is Testing a Critical Technical Support Area
If WTI breaks more significantly below its key support level, it's going to be quite bearish on a technical basis.Jun 3, 2024
We're Looking At One Surprising Group That Has Some Very Strong Upside Potential
There is one group that could see a surprisingly strong rally over the coming months…if their ETF breaks above its key resistance level.Jun 2, 2024
If Tech Sees a Material Pullback, "Rotation" Will Turn Into "Selling"
The tech sector is so heavily weighted in the major averages that a drop in the group will cause a meaningful drop in those indices. THAT will cause investors to top "rotating," and to start "selling."May 31, 2024
"Rotation" Isn't Always Good in the Stock Market.....Also, Europe is Showing a Few Cracks
The recent "rotation" in the stock market has really been a "churning" action...which tends to be near-term bearish after a nice advance.May 30, 2024
Commercial Real Estate is Quickly Becoming a Concern Once Again
A new report shows that the big banks have higher exposure to commercial real estate than is widely known.May 29, 2024
What's Going On With The Global Bond Markets?
"Given the proclivity of both parties in Washington DC to ignore the budgetary problems they face, it’s hard to think that the supply/demand equation is going to improve in a significant way for the Treasury market…especially with the Fed pushing the “high for longer” mantra so hard recently."May 28, 2024
WTI Crude Oil: "The Battle of the 200s"
If Iran continues to move closer to becoming a nuclear power, the war in the Middle East will expand in a substantial manner.May 26, 2024
After Zero Growth Last Year, 11% Earnings Growth This Year Is Not Enough
The stock market rallied 25% last year on ZERO earnings growth. Thus, it's going to have to have much higher than 10%-11% in future years to justify today's market levels. (There's a REASON the market is expensive!!!)May 24, 2024
A Poor Reaction to Good News is Never Encouraging
The action in the broad stock market yesterday…after such fabulous earnings/guidance out of Nvidia…was very disappointing. The “internals” from yesterday…and some other technical developments…are pointing to the possibility of a reversal in the stock market before too long.May 23, 2024
Nvidia's 10 for 1 Stock Split Should Create More Demand for the Stock, But it Could Create More Volatility Down the Road
The 10 for 1 stock split for NVDA could/should attract more individual investors for the stock, but it should also do the same for its options. That could be bullish near-term, BUT it could also create more volatility when the stock sees any (inevitable) corrections in the future.May 22, 2024
We Will Be Honoring Our Fallen Heroes This Weekend.
No matter how you feel about what is going on in our country today, we hope you will consider flying the American flag this weekend. Doing so merely honors those who have given “the last full measure of devotion” to their country…….Our flag will be flying all weekend.May 21, 2024
What Do Ethereum and Wheat Have in Common?
Actually, Ethereum and wheat have almost nothing in common, but their moves over the coming weeks could still be very important...on several fronts.May 20, 2024
Be VERY Careful About Chasing Copper Up At These Levels
No asset moves in a straight line...no matter how good or bad its prospects might be. Copper is now at the kind of overbought level that if frequently followed by material pullbacks.May 17, 2024
It's Still All About Liquidity
1) Slight break above the all-time highs. Will the stock market breakout…or form a “double-top”??? 2) History shows that Fed rate cuts…after an aggressive tightening cycle…are BEARISH for stock, NOT bullish!May 16, 2024
A Very Short-Term "Breather" is Quite Likely Right Now for the Stock Market
The stock market saw a nice new breakout to an all-time high yesterday. However, it likely needs to take a short-term “breather” after the recent strong advance…..We cannot count out a “double-top” on its longer-term chart, so the market is still at a key level.May 15, 2024
Will the Meme-Stock Revival Disappear as Quickly as it Reappeared?
The data over the past month has been weaker than expected. How is this going to create the kind of VERY strong growth in earnings that the consensus is looking for in the second half of this year?May 14, 2024
Forget About GME and Focus on the Stocks That Have Sustainable Potential
We have become more constructive on the energy stocks…and we’ll become outright bullish if WTI crude oil can break above $80 in a meaningful way. One stock that looks particularly intriguing to us on a technical basis…if it crude oil can indeed move above that $80 level in a significant manner.May 13, 2024
This Week Should be a CRITICAL One for the Stock Market
We might not like it when one data point becomes extremely important for the outlook on the stock market, but there is little question that this happens from time to time....This week is one of those times.May 12, 2024
Thank Goodness For All Of The Stimulus, But The Steroids Cannot Last Forever
This earnings season has actually only been "okay." Bond yields are still very high vs. the past 17 years. Thus, this week's inflation data will be EXTREMELY important.May 10, 2024
What's Up with the Lower Volume in Tech?
What’s going on with the implosion of volume in the QQQ’s this week? Could this be a sign that the demand for the tech sector is waning? It’s too early to draw that conclusion just yet, but investors just might have to be a lot more nimble going forward.May 9, 2024
We're Still Keeping a Very Close Eye on Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has seen some positive developments since we highlighted it as being quite oversold two days ago. Therefore, if it can rally any further…and take-out an important resistance level…it should run quite nicely…very soon.May 8, 2024
This Rally Needs to Broaden Out More in Order to be Sustainable
The bounce off the April lows for the stock market has been a narrow one. That’s not the end of the world, but it would be a lot more positive if this rally can broaden out over the coming days and weeks…given that the market is a lot more expensive than it was at this time last year.May 7, 2024
Crude Oil Looks Ripe for a Nice Bounce on a Technical Basis
WTI crude oil is testing a key support level. However, it has also reached the kind of oversold condition that has been followed by strong bounces in the past. Therefore, we believe this commodity (and its related stocks) look very enticing right here.May 6, 2024
Our Most Important Call of the Year (BY FAR)!!!
This is the most important note we’ll send out all year. No, this has nothing to do with any market analysis. It has to do with reminding you to make your Mother’s Day arrangements RIGHT NOW. DO NOT WAIT another minute. The rest of your life could depend on this!!!May 5, 2024
Nice Week Last Week, But We're Not Out of the Woods Yet
The markets had a nice week last week, but they still need to see more upside follow-through to confirm that the worst is behind us.May 3, 2024
The Strategies that Worked Over the Past 6 Months...Will Not Necessarily Be What Works for the Rest of 2024
How many people realize that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has only traded higher than where it stands today for FIVE weeks over the past 17 years? With valuations elevated, that should change investors strategies.May 2, 2024
Apple's All-Important Support/Resistance Levels are Very Well Defined as They Report Their Earnings Today
AAPL reports earnings after the close. If one of the distinct support/resistance levels is broken in a meaningful way, it should be a very important signal as to where the stock is headed over the rest of Q2…(and probably beyond).May 1, 2024
Sometimes "Better Than Expected" Is Not Enough
As we have been saying for some time now, the recent “set up” in the stock market is very reminiscent of what we saw last August. After a huge rally in the stock market…and a significant rise in bond yields…even good earnings were not enough to prevent a correction from taking place.Apr 30, 2024
Meaningfully Higher Bond Yields Always Create Headwinds for Stocks Eventually
Just because higher long-term bond yields have not had an impact on the stock market yet, it does not mean it’s something that investors can ignore. In fact, history tells us that higher yields are FREQUENTLY ignored for many months…only to create significant headwinds eventually.Apr 29, 2024
$60k is Critical Support for Bitcoin
Even if Bitcoin is headed a lot higher over the longer-term, a break below $60k would signal that it will likely see an intermediate-term correction.Apr 28, 2024
The Outlook for the Second Half of 2024 Looks Good, But There are Still Some Near-term Storm Clouds to Consider
It's an election year, so the market should see a nice second half of the year for the markets. However, last week's set up was actually something that could create more weakness near-term.Apr 26, 2024
As Usual, The Chip Stocks Will Be Key Going Forward
After a 15% decline from the March highs, the SMH semiconductor ETF is bouncing from an oversold condition. Whether the bounce in this all-important leadership group has legs or not as we move into the merry month of May should be very important for the rest of the stock market.Apr 25, 2024
META Confirms that "Guidance" is More Important Than Usual this Earnings Season
Meta’s disappointing guidance raises the odds that this earnings season will not create the kind of increase in earnings expectations for 2024 & 2025 that is needed to help the stock market rally further from its current expensive level. (It also raises the odds that a full-blown correction.)Apr 24, 2024
Microsoft's Earnings/Guidance will be Particularly Important this Week.
MSFT stands at a key level on a technical basis. Therefore, how it reacts to its earnings/guidance is going to be very important for the stock on an intermediate-term basis. (Longer-term, its prospects are still excellent.)Apr 23, 2024
The Regional Banks Stand at a Key Technical Juncture
The KRE bank ETF has formed a “descending triangle” pattern…and whichever way it breaks out of this pattern in the coming days and weeks should be quite important for how it acts of the rest of 2024.Apr 22, 2024
Just "Beating Expctations" This Earnings Season Won't Be Enough!
Ignore the data about how many companies beat expectations (the majority of them ALWAYS do). Instead, focus on the guidance. It's going to HAVE to be good enough to raise the consensus estimates in materially for both 2024 & 2025…if the stock market is going to bounce back in significant fashion.Apr 14, 2024
High for Longer...and Increased Tensions in the Middle East...Not a Bullish Combination.
Expensive markets to not respond well when a key leg to the bullish stool is removed..and geopolitical conditions stresses rise in a meaningful way.Apr 12, 2024
Big Cap Tech is a "Flight to Safety" Play Once Again...Will It Last?
Since the gold and oil markets have been pricing in a meaningful impact on the marketplace from this crisis…it’s not out of the question that the stock market will follow those other markets and see an outsized reaction before longApr 11, 2024
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Suddenly Looks Vulnerable.
If the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index falls much more from current levels, it’s going to send up a big warning flag on this part of the stock market…on a technical basis.Apr 10, 2024
Banks/Financials Are Sitting at a KEY Technical Juncture
Later this week (and early next week), we get some KEY bank earnings. Given the technical make up of the KBE bank ETF (and the XLF financial stock ETF)…these earnings could be VERY important as to how this group and sector acts as we move through the second quarter.Apr 9, 2024
A Few Cracks Showing Up In European Stocks
We’re seeing some cracks in Europe’s stock market…so if that market falls much further from here, it will raise some warning flags. That, in turn, would signal that this market is going to have a much harder time keeping up with the U.S. market.Apr 8, 2024
Almost the Entire Bond Market Sits at a Precarious Level on the Technical Side of the Ledger
The CPI number has become a very important data point over the last couple of years. This week’s will be particularly important…because SEVERAL AREAS of the fixed income market are on the cusp of signaling a VERY important change in trend.Apr 7, 2024
Stock Traders Should Be More Concerned About the Middle East (in the way that commodity traders have become).
As the stock market shook off the developments in the Middle East on Friday, gold and oil kept rallying strongly. This tells us that equity investors are too complacent.Apr 5, 2024
Yep, the Risks in the Marketplace are Definitely Growing
Investors need to be much less complacent about the situation in the Middle East.Apr 4, 2024
The Energy Sector is Quite Overbought on a Short-Term Basis
The energy stocks are getting quite overbought on a short-term basis. In fact, stocks like COP have only been more overbought twice over the past 35 years. Thus, they’re getting ripe for a near-term pullback.Apr 3, 2024
Don't Be Complacent About the Rising Tensions in the Middle East
The situation in the Middle East has become much more dangerous over the past few days. So, the risks are rising in this expensive/overbought market.Apr 2, 2024
There Are Some VERY Important Technical Developments Taking Shape This Morning!
We are seeing some VERY important moves in the charts on the US 10yr Treasury note, Crude Oil, and Bitcoin this morning....Warning signals are flashing!!!Mar 28, 2024
Will Tech's Mediocre March Create Any Problems Going Forward?
Believe it or not, the XLK tech ETF had a flat March...and its weekly MACD chart is sending up some real warning signals.Mar 28, 2024
Be Careful About the Financial Stocks Near-Term
JPM has become the most overbought it has EVER been by one measure...and Visa & Mastercard are seeing some cracks in their charts. Thus the financial sector look vulnerable over the near-term.Mar 27, 2024
Investors Will Have 3 days to Ponder Friday's Inflation Data
When an important inflation news is reported, the market responds immediately. This week, the markets won’t be able to react to it for three full days. When people have a lot of time to think about an important data point, the reaction can sometimes be an outsized one.Mar 26, 2024
More Records Before the End of Q1?
We do need to point out, however, that some stocks are getting overbought. In fact, Micron (MU) is becoming extremely overbought. Therefore, it’s one that will be ripe for a pullback as we move into the early part of Q2 (even if it’s going to eventually rally more as we go through the year).Mar 25, 2024
More Firms are Waking Up to the Fact that the Earnings Picture is Not Improving
There’s a good reason why the multiple on the S&P 500 has exploded higher over the past year: earnings estimates have not improved. So, if the earnings outlook doesn’t improve significantly soon, it’s going to create headwinds for the stock market.Mar 23, 2024
Did Chairman Powell Signal that the "Fed Put" is Still Alive and Well Last Week?
Chairman Powell seemed to give investors the green light for "risk on"...but it will not give us a healthy rally.....Stay nimble my friends!Mar 21, 2024
Don't Just Focus on the Hottest Stocks
The hottest stocks could/should continue to do well if the market keeps on chugging higher. However, there are some other names that could also help the investors’ performance over the rest of the year.Mar 20, 2024
Today's Fed Announcement Will Be More Important Than Usual
The Fed’s rate announcements and the Chairman’s press conferences are always important. However, with Treasury yields testing key resistance levels, these events are going to be particularly important this time around.Mar 19, 2024
There are Reasons to Think that Liquidity will Become Less Plentiful
There are a few reasons to think that the level of liquidity sloshing around the system might become a bit less plentiful as we move into the spring months. That will make some of the risk assets that have become overbought (and in many cases, quite expensive) very vulnerable over the near-term.Mar 18, 2024
The Real Story Behind Kirk Cousin's Big NFL Contract
Is the news out of GOOGL/AAPL the catalyst for another big rally leg for the stock market? We think not.Mar 16, 2024
Stock Prices and Valuations are Very Elevated...Therefore, so are the Risks.
Wall Street should be spending more time telling investors that the level of risk has become elevated over the past several weeks.Mar 15, 2024
We're Seeing Signs that Investors are Now "Selling"...and Not Just "Rotating."
With more big-cap tech names showing some cracks, investors are starting to just sell...instead of "rotating" into other sectors.Mar 14, 2024