Archive
Mar 22, 2023
Another Divergence Has Developed Between the Stock Market & the Treasury Bond Market
The S&P 500 has already retraced 100% of its losses since the SVB crisis began. The Treasury market has only retraced 1/3 of its "flight to safety" move. Thus, there is a lot of complacency in the stock market right now.Mar 21, 2023
Somewhere...Over The Rainbow
The stock market is not looking past this crisis. It's being propped up by liquidity. Therefore, It’s looking over the rainbow…into a fantasy land…that is very unlikely to exist for very long.Mar 20, 2023
Far From Out Of The Woods
The only reason the stock market rallied last week was because of an emergency injection of liquidity. If Chairman Powell does not indicate that a big new (sustained) liquidity program, the rally will fail.Mar 19, 2023
The Renewed Injections Of Emergency Liquidity Likely Won't Last Very Long This Time.
If the Fed does what it did in 2021...and keeps providing emergency levels of liquidity after the emergency passes...the stock market can rally a lot more this year. However, if they don't, the stock market is going to have a very tough time maintaining its current level.Mar 17, 2023
Avoiding a Repeat of 2008 Does Not Mean We Can Avoid More Pain
A repeat of the banking crisis of 2008 is unlikely. However, given that a recession is now much more likely...and earnings forecasts will have to come down...today's expensive stock market will have to fall further.Mar 16, 2023
No Change: Some Markets Are Starting To Price-in A Recession, BUT The Stock Market Has Not.
First the bond market, now the oil market. SOME markets ARE starting to price-in a recession. However, the stock market is still WAY too overvalued to say the same thing about the equity market. (This is especially true given that earnings estimates are going to come down much more quickly now.)Mar 15, 2023
A Recession is Now Unavoidable and the Stock Market has NOT Priced-in This New Reality.
The developments of the past week mean we cannot avoid a recession. At almost 18x earnings (& earnings forecasts set to fall even more), today's stock market has not come even close to pricing-in a recession (even if we avoid a banking crisis).Mar 14, 2023
Some Short-Term Relief For The Extremely Oversold Bank Stocks
Banks stocks had become EXTREMELY oversold yesterday, so a short-term bounce should help the broad market short-term. However, when the dust settles, earnings estimates will continue to decline. That's not good for an expensive stock market.Mar 13, 2023
The Bailout of SVB Will Not Keep The "Innovation Industry" From Shrinking Considerably Going Forward.
Despite the full bailout of the SVB depositors, the "Innovation Industry" is going to have to shrink considerably. This has a lot of implications for the economy...and for 2023 earnings estimates. Lower earnings + an expensive stock market = lower stock prices.Mar 12, 2023
The Failure of SVB Shows That The "Innovation Industry" Is Going to Shrink Considerably
One of the key lessons from the failure of SVB is that with less artificial liquidity in the system, there will be less money for innovation...and thus the "innovation industry" is going to shrink quite a bit.Mar 10, 2023
SVB's Issues Could Create Further Problems EVEN If It Does Not Cause Another Contagion
The issues surrounding SVB Financial do not have to become a contagion to create problems for the stock market. It is another signal that less liquidity will stymie the markets for longer than the bulls think it can.Mar 9, 2023
The Bond Market is Pricing-in A Lot...We Cannot Say The Same Thing About the Stock Market
The huge move in the bond market over the past month shows that it is pricing-in "higher for longer." However, the lack of a similarly sized move in the stock market shows that it is not pricing-in this scenario yet.Mar 8, 2023
The Fed Giveth...The Fed Taketh Away
You cannot put the economy & markets on steroids...and expect them to to avoid a very extended period of weakness after you remove the steroids!Mar 7, 2023
There's Way Too Much Complacency Surrounding Oil Prices Today
Oil price might be much lower than their 2022 highs, but they're still elevated compared to the past decade. They're also testing a key resistance level, so crude oil could create headwinds for the lower inflation argument.Mar 6, 2023
Powell's Testimony & The Employment Report Should Be Key This week
Chairman Powell's Washington testimony & Friday's employment report should be the key this week. However, we'll also be watching the housing stocks as well. Higher interest rates create headwinds for many areas.Mar 5, 2023
The Current Advance In the Stock Market Is A Sucker's Rally
Investors are finally starting to realize that we're not going back to the free-money days of yore. It won't be too long before they also realize stocks cannot stay overvalued without that free money/liquidity.Mar 2, 2023
Will Tax Season Actually Cause a Rotation Away From Stocks This Year?
This tax season could be a catalyst for many individual investors to rethink the amount of money they have in stocks vs. 5% in risk-free assets.....Also, the 200-DMA on the S&P 500 is a KEY support level for more than one reason!Mar 1, 2023
The Healthcare Sector Is Ripe For A Bounce
The healthcare sector has become extremely oversold. Whether any upcoming bounce will be sustainable or not is open to question. However, several key names are quite ripe for a nice bounce over the near-term.Feb 28, 2023
Be Careful When the Inverse Correlation Stocks & Bond Yields Reverses
At some point in the middle of EVERY bear market, the correlation between the stock market & Treasury yields reverses. At that point, lower rates no longer signal a bounce in stocks is in the offing. In fact, the exact opposite takes place.Feb 27, 2023
Much of Big Tech Is Rolling Over...Will Tesla Be Next?
Many big-cap tech stocks (like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, AMD, etc.) have started to roll-over in a material way. If TSLA and NVDA follow them soon, it will not be good for the broad stock market at all.Feb 26, 2023
Higher Treasury Yields & Lower Earnings = Big Problems For The Stock Market
The stock market is finally waking up to the fact that interest rates are rising to new highs and earnings estimates continue to fall....The line of least resistance is definitely lower for stocks.Feb 24, 2023
Worried About the Consumer? Watch the XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF
---The PCE deflator shows inflation is still a problem. That's not good for stocks. ---The XLY consumer discretionary ETF is testing very important support level.Feb 23, 2023
Can Alibaba's Earnings Report Help The Stock Breakout?
Nvidia’s earnings are helping the market bounce this morning, but Treasury yields remain near their recent highs....Whether today’s rise in BABA enables it to bounce off its 200-DMA in a lasting fashion is going to be VERY important for the stock.Feb 22, 2023
Natural Gas Is (Finally) Getting Ripe for a Tradable Bounce
The stock market "internals" and "late da y action" have changed...and are becoming a concern.....Also, natural gas has become very oversold on its charts, so it's getting ripe for a bounce that lasts for more than just a few days.Feb 21, 2023
Tomorrow's Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings Report Could Be Extremely Important For The Market
With interest rates rising, the tech stocks are facing more headwinds. Thus, Nvidia's earnings had better not disappoint investors tomorrow.Feb 19, 2023
Higher Bond Yields And Lower Earnings Forecasts Are a Toxic Mixture for Stocks.
The stock market is starting to wake up to the fact that bond yields are rising again and that earnings forecast are falling in a significant way. This means market volatility is going to catapult higher in the days and weeks ahead.Feb 17, 2023
Turning Point For The Markets?
There are signs that the recent rally has been fueled by added liquidity. However, this liquidity is fading...and THAT'S not good for the bulls.Feb 16, 2023
Bitcoin Stands at a CRITICAL Juncture on a Technical Basis
It's hard to describe just how important the $25,000 level is for bitcoin on a technical basis. Read more to find out why.Feb 14, 2023
CPI Today....Also, What Will the Action in CAT Tell Us?
Today's CPI data will obviously be very important at this critical juncture in the stock market.....We'll also be watching Caterpillar Inc for some interesting clues about the broad stock market.Feb 13, 2023
Probable Boring Day Today, But That Could/Should Change Very Quickly.
With the big CPI number tomorrow, today should be a quiet/boring one. However, given the technical condition of the market, we could see a big move (one way or the other) before the week is out.Feb 12, 2023
When Treasury Yields Stop Declining, The "Buy Every Dip" Strategy Doesn't Work Very Well.
Last week, we got signs that the trend for Treasury yields has reversed (higher).....Thus, it's no surprise that other signs are pointing to an imminent change in trend for the stock market (lower).Feb 10, 2023
Key Turning Point For The Markets
The action in the stock market yesterday is one of three developments this week which has raised the odds significantly that the stock market now stands at a key turning point.Feb 9, 2023
Keep a Close Eye on the HYG High Yield ETF
---Some good earnings today, but the overall earnings season has been a bad one. ---Investors should be rooting for the Eagles in the Super Bowl! ---The HYG high yield ETF stands at a key technical juncture.Feb 8, 2023
Bond Yields & the Dollar Are On the Cusp of a Change in Trend. (What does that mean for stocks?)
There was a big difference between how the stock market reacted to the Fed Chair's comments yesterday...and how the Treasury market and currency market reacted. With bond yields & the dollar at key technical junctures, the action in the next week will be VERY important.Feb 7, 2023
Lots of Individual Stocks Are Overbought right now (2nd try)
---The stock market has fallen two days in a row. We didn’t think that was possible! ---Will Chairman Powell really throw cold water on the stock market the same day of the State of the Union speech? ---We can add five key large-cap stocks to our list of key stocks that are quite overbought.Feb 7, 2023
Lots of Individual Stocks Are Overbought Right Now
---The stock market has fallen two days in a row. We didn’t think that was possible! ---Will Chairman Powell really throw cold water on the stock market the same day of the State of the Union speech? ---We can add five key large-cap stocks to our list of key stocks that are quite overbought.Feb 6, 2023
Even the Biggest Bulls Need To Be Careful Near-Term
We believe the stock market rally so far this year is coming to an end. However, even if we're wrong, investors should still be looking for a decent decline over the short-term.Feb 5, 2023
Can the Stock Market Keep Rallying Despite Mediocre Earnings/Guidance?
The key stock averages have broken key resistance levels, but they're also expensive and overbought at these levels.....Eventually, the fundamentals do matter.Feb 3, 2023
The Stock Market is Overbought. Will It Matter?
The S&P 500 an NDX 100 have both become overbought. This should make them ripe for at least some sort of near-term pullback. Whether we get that pullback will likely depend on today's employment report.Feb 2, 2023
Midday Comment: The QQQ is Getting Very Overbought Short-Term.
The market rally has obviously been a VERY powerful one. However, one measure shows that the QQQ is EXTREMELY extended on a technical basis. So tonight's earnings out of AAPL, AMZN, & GOOGL had better be good.Feb 2, 2023
Powell Puts Rate Cuts on the Table. What Does That Say About Future Earnings Growth?
---Powell contradicts his colleagues and puts a rate cut on the table for 2023. ---However, it will be tough for the S&P to rally much above 4,200. ---A bullish “golden cross” on the EEM emerging market ETF. ---What does Powell’s dovishness say about future earnings growth?Feb 1, 2023
How Many People Realize That Commodity Prices Stopped Falling FOUR Months ago?
The Fed WILL keep rates "higher for longer".....The CRB Commodity Index stopped falling a full four months ago...and it's now starting to bounce. With China re-opening, is inflation really go to fall a lot further?.....Caveat emptor.Jan 31, 2023
Quick Midday Update: More on the Importance of AMD's Upcoming Earnings Report.
In our morning piece, we spoke about the importance of this afternoon's big earnings report from AMD. We want to follow that up with the chart on the stock...because whichever way it goes, it should be VERY important for AMD...as well as the chip sector...and the broad market!Jan 31, 2023
Watching the Earnings Report For Advanced Micro Devises (AMD)VERY Closely Tonight.
---The decline we saw yesterday was not good, but it wasn’t horrible either. ---Chairman Powell has a major challenge in his press conference tomorrow. ---AMD’s earnings report could/should be VERY important for the chip sector.Jan 30, 2023
This Week Gives a Whole New Meaning to the Term, "Important Week."
Not only do we have some vitally important news on three different fronts this week (earnings, economic data, and the Fed), but these are all coming at a time when the major stock indices are trying to confirm upside breakouts…AND the Treasury market stands at a key technical juncture as well!Jan 29, 2023
The market is NOT "Always Right." It is Only "Always Right"... Eventually.
The stock market continues to act quite well in January. However, in the end, the fundamentals still matter...and bear markets don't end at expensive levels. Therefore, investors need to be very careful in the weeks and months ahead.Jan 27, 2023
Will the Fed Throw a Bucket of Cold Water on the Markets Again?
The markets are on the cusp of breaking meaningfully above their key resistance levels. However, will the Fed throw a bucket of cold water on the markets...like they did after the summer rally?Jan 26, 2023
The Door Is Wide Open. Will the Bull Walk Through it?
After yesterday's action, the stock market is poised for a near-term breakout. However, there's no guarantee. (Besides, if it does breakout, we think it will still provide a great opportunity to raise cash.)Jan 25, 2023
Lower Earnings and Less Liquidity Are a Lousy Combination For An Expensive Stock Market
If the stock market fails at a key technical resistance level because it has run out of momentum, it's not good. When it fails at a key resistance level due to a negative change in the fundamentals, it's much worse.Jan 24, 2023
Lower Interest Rates Are Not Bullish For Stocks If They Signal Lower Earnings
—Chip stock earnings this week will be important. —Lower interest rates can sometimes signal lower earnings. —A look at MSFT's chart. (They report this evening.)Jan 23, 2023
It's All About Earnings Now
We're now in the "quiet period" for the Fed, but it doesn't matter. We already know that they're going to "pause" soon. Thus, the next big move in the stock market will be determined by the upcoming earnings reports/guidance.Jan 22, 2023
Even if we can avoid a recession, the stock market cannot remain at an overvalued level.
The stock market cannot remain overvalued without artificially low interest rates and artificial liquidity. Thus, a soft landing will not be enough to prevent more weakness in the stock market. (Besides, a soft landing is still quite unlikely.)Jan 20, 2023
Crude Oil Testing a Key Resistance Level
The price of crude oil is very close to testing a level which, if broken, would be the first signal that the trend for the commodity is changing to the upside. That should be quite positive for the energy sector once again.Jan 19, 2023
More Warnings About The Consumer!
The negative news out of Discovery (DFS) last night last night shows how the consumer is becoming more strained. Lower growth means lower interest rates, BUT history tells us that is NOT good for the stock market under today's conditions.Jan 18, 2023
The Transports are at a key Level. Whichever way they break should be an important indicator for the economy.
With one trucker reporting disappointing earnings (& retail sales lower than expected), the Transportation index is going to be important indicator for the economy going forward.Jan 16, 2023
The MoneyShow Virtual Expo; Presentation on Tuesday, January 17, 2023
I will be presenting at the MoneyShow's Virtual Expo tomorrow (Tuesday, January 17, 2023) at 2:00pm EST. To sign up for this great event and to see the full schedule of impressive speakers, please check the attached link!Jan 15, 2023
The Stock Market Stands at a Key Short-Term Juncture, But it's Still a Bear Market Rally.
The major averages are bumping up against key resistance levels. If they're broken, it will be bullish near-term. However, without "free money" and "steroids" (QE), this rally is destined to fail.Jan 13, 2023
Bank Stocks Lower After Reporting Earnings (again).
As they seem to do every quarter, the bank stocks are trading lower after they reported earnings. However, their recent announcements on layoffs and shrinking bonus pools are much more telling about future economic growth.Jan 12, 2023
The "Dollar Reversal" Theme is Gaining Traction Quickly
While everybody is focused on the CPI this morning, the dollar is breaking a key support level. If it continues, it will be bullish for commodities and EM's...and it might be surprisingly bearish for U.S. stocks.Jan 11, 2023
The Bulls Should NOT Be Rooting For the NY Giants!
The NY Giants won the Super Bowl in 1987 and 2008, so why would investors root for them this year???.....On a more serious note, if lower interest rates are caused by slower growth, it's NOT a reason to be bullish on stocks.Jan 10, 2023
The Chip Stocks Stand At A Key Technical Juncture
The semiconductors are the most important leadership group in the stock market. So, whether it can break its key resistance level...or not...is going to be very important over the next week-to-ten-days.Jan 9, 2023
Minor Breakout in the Energy Stocks?
The dollar is testing a key support level, so a further decline could/should help crude oil and the energy stocks. The XLE energy ETF is breaking a minor resistance level this morning, so that's a good start.Jan 8, 2023
Investors Need to Realize that the Fed is Willing to Let the Economy Fall into a Recession.
It's important for investors to realize that Fed's job description does not include preventing recessions. In fact, right now, they're telling us they'll keep conditions tight...even at the risk of causing one.Jan 6, 2023
The Nasdaq Stands At Its KEY Technical Support Level!
Anything could happen after this morning's employment report, but any further decline in the NDX Nasdaq 100 will be VERY bearish on the technical side of the ledger.Jan 5, 2023
The Stock Market Is Still Range-Bound, But Not For Long.
The S&P 500 has been stuck in a sideways range for 3 weeks. There are good reasons to this that this should change at some point in the next 10 days or so........Hold onto your hats!Jan 4, 2023
Natural Gas Is Getting Quite Oversold
Natural gas has had a VERY rough couple of months. However, it's getting quite oversold and thus the shorts will need to be careful over the short-term (if not longer).Jan 3, 2023
The U.S. Consumer Is No Longer Strong
—How many people know that the Nasdaq made a new low last week? —The XLY consumer discretionary ETF (along with a lower savings rate & record credit card debt) show that the U.S. consumer is losing a lot of strength.Jan 1, 2023
More rough seas in 2023...and the S&P 500 could fall below 3,000 before it bottoms.
The process of taking the markets off artificial stimulus ("steroids") is far from over. It will continue to be a painful process and won't end until the markets are fully "normalized" (and trading on their own). That means more rough seas ahead in 2023.Dec 30, 2022
Traditional "seasonal tendencies" tend not to work in a bear market.
Our call (that went against the consensus) that looked for a decline in the stock market in December worked out very well....2023 should be another tough year, but don't assume it will fall significantly right out of the gate.Dec 28, 2022
The action in Apple Computer could/should be key for the stock market over the next 1-3 weeks.
AAPL is testing a VERY important support level. If it breaks that level any time soon, it's going to be negative for the stock...AND for the broad stock market as well!Dec 27, 2022
The Tom Brady Indicator....Also, the Tech Stocks are not oversold.
Despite what one well-known fundamental technology analyst is trying to say, the technology stocks are NOT oversold on a technical basis. He should stick to fundamental analysis.Dec 24, 2022
Taming Inflation is Not the Fed's Only Goal...and That's Why They'll Keep Tightening
If there is one thing we strongly believe that investors need to know as we move into 2023, it's the following: The Fed knows we need to get off the steroids, even if it causes a recession & a further decline in asset prices.Dec 22, 2022
Tiger Woods To Play For The NY Mets in 2023?
The way the Mets are going, they'll probably give Tiger Woods a Bobby Bonilla contract soon!.......Also, gold is breaking out nicely.Dec 21, 2022
Santa Claus Rally?...Micron Earnings (tonight) Should Be The Key.
There is little question that MU, SMH & the SPX are all at key technical junctures. Therefore, MU’s earnings report tonight could be THE key as to whether we get a Santa Claus rally or not this year!Dec 20, 2022
Echoes of 1989
The surprise change in monetary policy by the BOJ might not have the same impact it did in 1989, but it's likely going to keep volatility high as we move into 2023.Dec 18, 2022
A Next Phase Of The Bear Market Seems Have Begun
The next big phase of the bear market...where the stock market begins pricing-in a recession...seems to have begun over the past two weeks.Dec 16, 2022
On The Cusp Of A Big Decline?
Anything can happen today...given that its a "quadruple witch" expiration day. However, the potential is there for a surprising decline next week.....A significant drop is not guaranteed, but investors need to be very careful near-term.Dec 15, 2022
We're Watching China More Closely Than We're Watching The Fed
China is not going to be able to reopen as quickly as many have hoped. This is negative for global growth (and U.S. growth)......More importantly, the Fed will not "pivot" until the market forces them to.Dec 14, 2022
Bear Market Bottoms Are Followed By Tech & Small-Cap Outperformance, not underperformance
History tells us that the ultimate bottom for bear markets are marked by outperformance in the tech & small-cap areas. However, these sectors have been underperforming since the October lows.Dec 13, 2022
Long-Term Treasuries are Close to Confirming a Change in Trend.
If long-term fall below its recent lows in a significant way, it should confirm an important change in trend for long-term yields. However, investors need to be very careful about what they wish for.Dec 12, 2022
China Related Stocks/ETFs Look Quite Toppy Near-Term
The lifting of restrictions is leading to a very quick/large spread of covid in China. It's overwhelming their healthcare system and could/should slow the recent rally in that country.Dec 11, 2022
The Markets are Shifting...In Order to Price-in a Hard Landing.
The markets are shifting in order to price-in a hard landing. This means interest rates and stocks will actually decline in tandem in the months ahead.Dec 9, 2022
Was Peyton Manning Robbed of the Heisman Trophy in 1997?
---We’re seeing more evidence that the correlation between the Treasury market and the stock market is seeing an important shift. ---The stock market needs a “Goldilocks economy”…because it will be bearish if the economy is EITHER too hot OR too cold.Dec 8, 2022
An Important Shift In Focus For Investors Seems To Be Upon Us
The more cautious comments from financial company CEO's...and the reaction in the marketplace to those comments...shows that investors are shifting their focus in a very important way.Dec 6, 2022
Bank Stocks Looking Dicey On The Charts.
No, it's not 2008 all over again, but recessions aren't good for bank stocks. If their weakness of the last few days sees more downside follow-through soon, it's going to raise a big yellow warning flag for the group before the end of the year.Dec 5, 2022
Good News Out Of China, But It's Getting Quite Overbought Near-Term.
The news that China is going to ease covid restrictions has their stocks rallying again. However, HUGE gains over the past 5-6 weeks, they're becoming overbought, thus they're getting ripe for a near-term breather.Dec 4, 2022
A Recession is very likely, but the market will fall further even if we don't fall into one.
A Recession is very likely, but the market will fall further even if we don't fall into one.....The market is too expensive to stay at its current level even if we avoid a recession.Dec 2, 2022
Are Housing Stocks Poised To Roll-Over Soon?
The ITB home construction ETF is testing a key resistance level, BUT the price of lumber is breaking down and the news on the housing front is mostly negative. The group could be ripe for a pullback soon.Dec 1, 2022
We're Not Like Fonzie....Gold Ready To Breakout?
---Fonzie could never admit when he was wrong. We can. ---A more significant break above the 200-DMA on the SPX will be quite positive. ---The dollar is testing key support…and gold is close to key resistance.Nov 30, 2022
Powell Speech...And Cracks Developing in the Small-cap ETF
—If we get a surprise from Powell today, it should be a hawkish one, not a dovish surprise. —The IWM small-cap ETF is seeing some cracks. Any further downside follow-through will be quite negative.Nov 29, 2022
Chip Stocks are Still at a KEY Technical Juncture
The charts on the SMH semiconductor ETF are starting to look quite dicey, so this week should be very important for this key leadership group.Nov 28, 2022
When It Comes to Making Sacrifices, Pandemics are Not the Same as War.
The Chinese government is stuck between a rock and a hard place...and it could/should have important implications for global growth and global stock markets.Nov 27, 2022
Critical Week Next Week...In Several Different Ways.
The S&P 500, the NDX 100, the DJ Transports, gold, natural gas, the dollar...all stand at key technical junctures. Next week should be a very important one.Nov 22, 2022
Three Key Consumer Stocks to Watch Over the Next Two Weeks.
Amazon, Federal Express, and Apple should tell us a lot about the state of the consumer over the next two weeks. That, in turn, will tell us a lot about the economy as we move into 2023.Nov 21, 2022
College Professors Don't Live in the Real World
We heard another example this weekend...this time from a college professor...that showed how too many people don't understand the full extent of what will take place in the economy/markets as stimulus is removed.Nov 20, 2022
The Coming Recession Means New Lows for the Stock Market Eventually.
The removal of liquidity in the system has much more far reaching implications for the markets and economy than most investors realize.Nov 18, 2022
Financial Stocks Stand at a Key Technical Juncture...(Also, Go Lafayette, Beat Lehigh!)
Both the XLF and KBE financial/bank stock ETFs are testing key support levels, so any further decline in the next week or so will not be good for the group.....Also, Go Lafayette, Beat Lehigh! :)Nov 17, 2022
God Bless UVA
We'll continue to keep a very close eye on the chip stocks going forward. However, there is much more to life than the markets. Our prayers are with all of those in Virginia (and Idaho for that matter).Nov 16, 2022
Is The Consumer Really Still Strong???
The official Retail Sales data from the government today was good, but it's only holding up because consumers are borrowing more...a lot more. That cannot last.Nov 15, 2022