Archive
Apr 28, 2024
The Outlook for the Second Half of 2024 Looks Good, But There are Still Some Near-term Storm Clouds to Consider
It's an election year, so the market should see a nice second half of the year for the markets. However, last week's set up was actually something that could create more weakness near-term.Apr 26, 2024
As Usual, The Chip Stocks Will Be Key Going Forward
After a 15% decline from the March highs, the SMH semiconductor ETF is bouncing from an oversold condition. Whether the bounce in this all-important leadership group has legs or not as we move into the merry month of May should be very important for the rest of the stock market.Apr 25, 2024
META Confirms that "Guidance" is More Important Than Usual this Earnings Season
Meta’s disappointing guidance raises the odds that this earnings season will not create the kind of increase in earnings expectations for 2024 & 2025 that is needed to help the stock market rally further from its current expensive level. (It also raises the odds that a full-blown correction.)Apr 24, 2024
Microsoft's Earnings/Guidance will be Particularly Important this Week.
MSFT stands at a key level on a technical basis. Therefore, how it reacts to its earnings/guidance is going to be very important for the stock on an intermediate-term basis. (Longer-term, its prospects are still excellent.)Apr 23, 2024
The Regional Banks Stand at a Key Technical Juncture
The KRE bank ETF has formed a “descending triangle” pattern…and whichever way it breaks out of this pattern in the coming days and weeks should be quite important for how it acts of the rest of 2024.Apr 22, 2024
Just "Beating Expctations" This Earnings Season Won't Be Enough!
Ignore the data about how many companies beat expectations (the majority of them ALWAYS do). Instead, focus on the guidance. It's going to HAVE to be good enough to raise the consensus estimates in materially for both 2024 & 2025…if the stock market is going to bounce back in significant fashion.Apr 14, 2024
High for Longer...and Increased Tensions in the Middle East...Not a Bullish Combination.
Expensive markets to not respond well when a key leg to the bullish stool is removed..and geopolitical conditions stresses rise in a meaningful way.Apr 12, 2024
Big Cap Tech is a "Flight to Safety" Play Once Again...Will It Last?
Since the gold and oil markets have been pricing in a meaningful impact on the marketplace from this crisis…it’s not out of the question that the stock market will follow those other markets and see an outsized reaction before longApr 11, 2024
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Suddenly Looks Vulnerable.
If the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index falls much more from current levels, it’s going to send up a big warning flag on this part of the stock market…on a technical basis.Apr 10, 2024
Banks/Financials Are Sitting at a KEY Technical Juncture
Later this week (and early next week), we get some KEY bank earnings. Given the technical make up of the KBE bank ETF (and the XLF financial stock ETF)…these earnings could be VERY important as to how this group and sector acts as we move through the second quarter.Apr 9, 2024
A Few Cracks Showing Up In European Stocks
We’re seeing some cracks in Europe’s stock market…so if that market falls much further from here, it will raise some warning flags. That, in turn, would signal that this market is going to have a much harder time keeping up with the U.S. market.Apr 8, 2024
Almost the Entire Bond Market Sits at a Precarious Level on the Technical Side of the Ledger
The CPI number has become a very important data point over the last couple of years. This week’s will be particularly important…because SEVERAL AREAS of the fixed income market are on the cusp of signaling a VERY important change in trend.Apr 7, 2024
Stock Traders Should Be More Concerned About the Middle East (in the way that commodity traders have become).
As the stock market shook off the developments in the Middle East on Friday, gold and oil kept rallying strongly. This tells us that equity investors are too complacent.Apr 5, 2024
Yep, the Risks in the Marketplace are Definitely Growing
Investors need to be much less complacent about the situation in the Middle East.Apr 4, 2024
The Energy Sector is Quite Overbought on a Short-Term Basis
The energy stocks are getting quite overbought on a short-term basis. In fact, stocks like COP have only been more overbought twice over the past 35 years. Thus, they’re getting ripe for a near-term pullback.Apr 3, 2024
Don't Be Complacent About the Rising Tensions in the Middle East
The situation in the Middle East has become much more dangerous over the past few days. So, the risks are rising in this expensive/overbought market.Apr 2, 2024
There Are Some VERY Important Technical Developments Taking Shape This Morning!
We are seeing some VERY important moves in the charts on the US 10yr Treasury note, Crude Oil, and Bitcoin this morning....Warning signals are flashing!!!Mar 28, 2024
Will Tech's Mediocre March Create Any Problems Going Forward?
Believe it or not, the XLK tech ETF had a flat March...and its weekly MACD chart is sending up some real warning signals.Mar 28, 2024
Be Careful About the Financial Stocks Near-Term
JPM has become the most overbought it has EVER been by one measure...and Visa & Mastercard are seeing some cracks in their charts. Thus the financial sector look vulnerable over the near-term.Mar 27, 2024
Investors Will Have 3 days to Ponder Friday's Inflation Data
When an important inflation news is reported, the market responds immediately. This week, the markets won’t be able to react to it for three full days. When people have a lot of time to think about an important data point, the reaction can sometimes be an outsized one.Mar 26, 2024
More Records Before the End of Q1?
We do need to point out, however, that some stocks are getting overbought. In fact, Micron (MU) is becoming extremely overbought. Therefore, it’s one that will be ripe for a pullback as we move into the early part of Q2 (even if it’s going to eventually rally more as we go through the year).Mar 25, 2024
More Firms are Waking Up to the Fact that the Earnings Picture is Not Improving
There’s a good reason why the multiple on the S&P 500 has exploded higher over the past year: earnings estimates have not improved. So, if the earnings outlook doesn’t improve significantly soon, it’s going to create headwinds for the stock market.Mar 23, 2024
Did Chairman Powell Signal that the "Fed Put" is Still Alive and Well Last Week?
Chairman Powell seemed to give investors the green light for "risk on"...but it will not give us a healthy rally.....Stay nimble my friends!Mar 21, 2024
Don't Just Focus on the Hottest Stocks
The hottest stocks could/should continue to do well if the market keeps on chugging higher. However, there are some other names that could also help the investors’ performance over the rest of the year.Mar 20, 2024
Today's Fed Announcement Will Be More Important Than Usual
The Fed’s rate announcements and the Chairman’s press conferences are always important. However, with Treasury yields testing key resistance levels, these events are going to be particularly important this time around.Mar 19, 2024
There are Reasons to Think that Liquidity will Become Less Plentiful
There are a few reasons to think that the level of liquidity sloshing around the system might become a bit less plentiful as we move into the spring months. That will make some of the risk assets that have become overbought (and in many cases, quite expensive) very vulnerable over the near-term.Mar 18, 2024
The Real Story Behind Kirk Cousin's Big NFL Contract
Is the news out of GOOGL/AAPL the catalyst for another big rally leg for the stock market? We think not.Mar 16, 2024
Stock Prices and Valuations are Very Elevated...Therefore, so are the Risks.
Wall Street should be spending more time telling investors that the level of risk has become elevated over the past several weeks.Mar 15, 2024
We're Seeing Signs that Investors are Now "Selling"...and Not Just "Rotating."
With more big-cap tech names showing some cracks, investors are starting to just sell...instead of "rotating" into other sectors.Mar 14, 2024
Rising Commodity Prices are Adding to the Renewed Concerns Over Inflation
The big jump in copper…along with the further rise in crude oil…are adding to the questions about how much further inflation will fall…and whether it will start to climb once again. This has important implications for the bond market…and it’s something the stock market cannot ignore forever.Mar 13, 2024
Bitcoin's Rally Has Been Relentless, But it's Now Getting Extremely Overbought
Bitcoin’s rally has been incredible in recent weeks. However, it’s also getting extremely overbought. Therefore, even if it is headed a lot higher this year, the odds are very high that it will see some sort of meaningful decline soon…in order to work-off this overbought condition.Mar 12, 2024
Add the Financial Stocks to the List of Very Overbought Sectors
We can add the XLF financial stock ETF to the list of groups that have become quite overbought. It could still rally a bit more, but it should start some sort of material pullback very soon.Mar 11, 2024
The Correction in the Big-Cap Tech Names Seems to be Spreading
There will be a lot of focus on tomorrow’s CPI inflation report, but the main focus this week will remain on the big-cap tech names. If the recent weakness in AAPL, TSLA, and GOOGL spills over into NVDA, META, AMZN…it’s going to cause a meaningful pullback in the major stock averages.Mar 9, 2024
We See a Correction for the Stock Market Beginning Very Soon
We think that we’ve come to a juncture where we will see some sort of material pullback in the stock market…even if it’s not a major top for the stock market just yet.Mar 8, 2024
There's Too Much Froth in the Stock Market...A Pullback is Coming Soon
The stock market now getting very overbought. Therefore, it is now getting ripe for a material pullback to work off this condition. With this in mind, investors should use the next week or so to raise some cash and get a bit more defensive.Mar 7, 2024
The Market Looks Great for Today's Session, But It's Getting Ripe for a Pullback
Even though the stock market looks good for today’s action…and could still rise a bit further in the next week…it is becoming very overbought. Therefore, investors should expect a material pullback that begins before the month of March is over.Mar 6, 2024
Nvidia's Stock is a Monster, But it's also the Most Overbought it has EVER Been!
NVDA has now become the most overbought it has EVER been by a couple of measures. So, if this fabulous stock joins other tech names with a pullback in the next week or so, it’s going to create some problems for the stock market over the near-term.Mar 5, 2024
Gold is Breaking Out...and the Gold Miners Should Outperform the Commodity
Gold is breaking its all-important resistance level. If history is any guide, the gold miners will outperform the commodity in a meaningful way…if gold does indeed rally strongly.Mar 4, 2024
We Could See Some Interesting Swings This Week, But......
There is definitely some froth in the marketplace right now. No matter how you slice it, froth or no froth, many assets are becoming quite overbought on a short-term basis. Therefore, even the biggest bulls should looking for some sort of pullback before too long.Mar 3, 2024
GREAT Momentum in the Markets, But We Should See a Short-Term Breather Before Long
We think the market can still see a bit more upside follow-through over the very-short-term. However, it is getting to the kind of overbought and over-loved level that is usually followed by pullback that last more than just a few days…and take the market down by more than just 2%-3%.Mar 1, 2024
Techs? Sure...But Watch the Banks and Crude Oil as Well Today
The news from NYCB raises further questions about the regional banks....However, crude oil is close to breaking out. THAT would be very bullish for the energy stocks.Feb 29, 2024
Can the Homebuilders Continue to Ignore Today's Higher Yields/Rates?
As we've been saying, today's inflation report could/should have an important impact on Treasury yields and stock sectors like the Russell 2000. It should be important for the housing stocks as well.Feb 28, 2024
The Small Cap Stocks Stand at a Critical Juncture
Tomorrow's inflation data could be important for both the bond market and the stock market. The reaction to that data on the 10yr yield and the Russell 2000 will be key.Feb 27, 2024
Too Much Money is Chasing the Flavor of the Day
The huge moves in stocks with the most momentum on any given day is a sign of an unhealthy market.Feb 26, 2024
Is the Biotech Sector Poised for an Upside Breakout?
The IBB biotech ETF is testing a KEY resistance level. If it breaks above that level in any meaningful way, it's going to be VERY bullish for the group on a technical basis.Feb 25, 2024
Lots of Opportunities Inside AND Outside Tech, BUT the Risks are Definitely Rising
The momentum in the stock market is tremendous, and it's not just the tech stocks. However, bond yields are high and earnings ar NOT rising. So the risks are higher than normal.Feb 23, 2024
Is Your "AI Portfolio" Properly Weighted?
It's not whether you're overweight Nvidia. It's whether you're overweight enough!Feb 22, 2024
Don't Just Focus on Tech Today! There are Other Opportunities as Well!
Tech is (rightfully) the #1 focus today. However, we're seeing a development in another sector that is signaling that it will outperform nicely in the months ahead.Feb 21, 2024
While You're Waiting for Nvidia to Report, Take a Look at Gold
The DXY dollar index is suddenly showing signs of weakness. If it falls much further from here, it could/should signal more weakness going forward. If that…or any other issue…causes gold to break above its all-important resistance level, it’s going to be EXTREMELY bullish for the yellow metal.Feb 20, 2024
Nvidia: Great Earnings Are Not Always Enough To Rally Its Stock
As we learned last August, sometimes Nvidia's stock gives us a "sell the news" reaction to its earnings...even when they're fabulouos.Feb 18, 2024
Look for More Volatility as We Now Enter a Seasonally Tougher Time for the Stock Market
Despite was some pundits are trying to say, this rally is STILL a VERY narrow. Therefore, it NEEDS broaden out a lot more than the very mild move we've seen recently.Feb 16, 2024
Is the Russell 2000 on the Cusp of an Important Breakout?
The small-cap Russell 2000 Index has moved back above the $2,000 level again. If it can follow this with a meaningful and sustainable break above its December highs, it’s going to be very bullish for this index on a technical basis.Feb 15, 2024
A Stock Market Pullback Would Actually Be Normal...AND Healthy!
With the bond market moving in a different direction than the stock market…and with some stocks (not just SMCI) seeing parabolic rallies…the market is becoming ripe for a pullback. However, that would be normal...AND healthy!!!Feb 14, 2024
Will This Morning's Bounce In Stocks Hold If Yields Don't Rollover?
Yes, the stock market could easily continue to rally in a significant way, but it is important to note that a change in trend in the Treasury market is taking place…and thus now is not the time for investors to be complacent.Feb 13, 2024
The Treasury Market Stands at a Critical Level
Today’s CPI number could be very important for both the bond and the stock markets....given that long-term Treasury yields are testing a very important resistance level…and their prices testing key support.Feb 12, 2024
What Do Bitcoin & the CPI Data Have in Common?
Whether the CPI number has an impact or not, we’ll be watching the Treasury market VERY closely this week….because it should have an important impact on the stock market as well.Feb 11, 2024
Fabulous New Highs For Stocks, But Risks Are Higher Than Normal...So Stay Nimble
The stock market continues to make records, but the risk/reward equation has moved much farther to the side of risk than many investors realize right now…and thus we believe that more than a little bit of caution is warranted.Feb 9, 2024
The Economically Sensitive Homebuilders Stand at a Key Juncture
The next big move in the bond market should also have an important impact on the economically sensitive home building stocks. Whichever way it breaks out of its recent range should tell us a lot about the economy and the broad stock market going forward.Feb 8, 2024
Disney: Another Example of How Extreme Sentiment is Usually Wrong
Our bullish call on Disney (DIS) from a few weeks ago is working out extremely well. It shows how we always want to look “beyond the fundamentals” to find good turnaround stories at key junctures.Feb 7, 2024
Watch the All-Important "Taylor Swift Indicator"!
Today’s record setting 10-year auction might (repeat, might) have an important impact on the outlook for long-term bond yields…which are close to confirming a change in trend.Feb 5, 2024
Did the Fed Just Move the Strike Price of Their "Put"?
There does seem to be some question, however, as to whether the Fed has recently tried to signal that their “put” has moved to a level that is more out-of-the-money than it was last spring after the huge 28% rally in the S&P 500 since then (and +49% in the NDX 100).Jan 30, 2024
Bank Stocks Testing Resistance...Poised to Breakout?
If (repeat, IF) the bank ETF's can break above their key resistance levels, the momentum it produces could/should lead to another nice rally leg for this group. So, don’t focus solely on the tech stocks and the Treasury market this week.Jan 29, 2024
The Comparisons with 2020 are Getting More Similar by the Day
The comparisons we have been making with today’s situation…to that of 2020…are getting more similar by the day. (They both had a strong rally that pushed the stock market into expensive/overbought levels…with a possible large negative catalyst on the horizon.)Jan 27, 2024
It's Not Just Like 1999 All Over Again, BUT That's Not a Reason To Become Complacent
The stock market could easily move higher, but it's getting overbought and very expensive. Investors NEED to stay nimble right now.Jan 26, 2024
Tesla is Becoming EXTREMELY Oversold (at least near-term).
Telsa’s 30% drop in less than one month has taken it to the kind of oversold level that has only been exceeded ONCE since it went public. So, it should be getting ripe for at least some sort of short-term bounce very soon.Jan 25, 2024
Energy Stocks are Poised to Outperform Going Forward
WTI crude oil is testing a KEY resistance level. If it is broken, it will confirm a change in trend to the upside for the commodity. This, in turn, should be VERY bullish for the energy stocks…given that they have lagged behind crude oil significantly over the past 4-6 weeks.Jan 24, 2024
A Divergence has Developed Between the Stock and Bond Market
The breakout in the chip stocks is very bullish. However, a divergence has developed between the bond and stock market that could/should create at least some headwinds for stocks before too long.Jan 23, 2024
What is Bitcoin's Recent Decline Telling Us?
Bitcoin has broken some near-term support levels. That’s negative over the near-term, but it doesn’t tell us much at all about it’s longer-term potential. History tells us that the decline since the “ETF decision” is not something that is overly bearish for the longer-term.Jan 22, 2024
The Outlook for Global Growth Continues to be Worrisome
We’re getting more and more signs that growth outside the U.S. is getting worse. (In fact, there are even some signs that it’s creating headwinds for the U.S. already.)Jan 21, 2024
Nice New All-Time Highs, But The Geopolitical Risks Are Very High As Well
The new all-time highs are great, but the stock market is priced for perfection. The situation in the Middle East is escalating buy the day. That's dangerous.Jan 19, 2024
It's Dangerous that Investors are Completely Ignoring the Escalating Situation in the Middle East
it's great that the NDX Nasdaq 100 is breaking out, but investors still NEED to keep some defensive positions...given the escalating situation in the Middle East.Jan 18, 2024
Can The Chip Stocks Breakout?
Better earnings and guidance have the semiconductor stocks rallying this morning. If this can push the SMH semiconductor ETF to a meaningful and sustained higher-high (above its all-time highs), it should be bullish for the broad market as well.Jan 17, 2024
Reversal of the "Rotation Game" in the Stock Market?
The broader Russell 2000 & S&P 500 Equal Weight indexes are not just underperforming, but they're declining. That's not good for the stock market overall.Jan 16, 2024
Is South Korea's KOSPI Index Sending Up Warning Signals About Global Growth?
If the KOSPI drop continues…and it falls below tis December lows, it’s going to raise the odds that a “double top” has been formed on this key indicator for global growth.Jan 14, 2024
The Real Issue in the Middle East is Israel's Concerns Over Iran Becoming a Nuclear Power
The real issue in the Middle East is Israel's concern about Iran becoming a nuclear power. So, the odds that it will become a regional conflict are highJan 12, 2024
WTI Crude Oil is Not Dead Yet
With the situation in the Middle East deteriorating further, the price of oil is rising. In fact, many people will likely be surprised to know that WTI is close to signaling an upside change in trend for crude oil.Jan 11, 2024
The Bank Stocks Stand at a Pivotal Point
The bank stocks have seen a mild pullback recently. Tomorrow’s earnings reports (and the ones from next week) should go a long way to telling us if the weakness will continue…or if the upside will reassert itself…for this very important group in the stock market.Jan 10, 2024
Is The Fed Really Going To Be Pre-emptive?
The markets have gone a long way to pricing-in the thought that the Fed will engage in a “pre-emptive easing” policy in 2024. Since it’s something the Fed has not followed that strategy in the past, it leaves the markets extremely vulnerable if they do not engage in this strategy.Jan 9, 2024
We're Seeing a "head fake"...But In Which Direction???
We’re likely seeing a “head fake” in the market right now. Thankfully, the battle lines are very well drawn…and we’ll know which situation was the head fake…once one of two levels on the S&P 500 is broken in a meaningful manner.Jan 8, 2024
What Is China's Stock Market Telling US About Global Growth in 2024?
"If China's stock market continues to decline, it’s certainly going to raise some more questions about China’s growth…AND given that they are the second biggest global economy, it’s going to raise some more questions about global growth next year as well."Jan 7, 2024
Without Continued Excess Liquidity Flows, 2024 Is Going To Be A Very Volitile Year
Last week's action caused some technical damage to be done in several markets. Thus, if these trends continue, some warning flags will be raised quite soon.Jan 5, 2024
John "Bluto" Blutarsky Would Be Very Proud!
We’d just like to congratulate Oklahoma State’s QB, Alan Bowman, who has received a seventh year of eligibility from the NCAA to play college football. John “Bluto” Blutarsky would be very proud. (Maybe Mr. Bowman will become a senator some day!!!)Jan 4, 2024
More Signs that "Froth" had Returned to the Markets in Late-2023
When stocks get hit hard when they are downgraded for merely "valuation" reasons, it's a sign that there's a lot of "froth" in the marketplace.Jan 3, 2024
Some Cracks are Showing Up in the Small Cap Rally
Yesterday's decline was not isolated to the tech arena. We’re also seeing some cracks in the small-cap Russell 2000 index. We'll be watching its MACD chart for clues how this will play out going forward.Jan 2, 2024
Bitcoin is Breaking Key Resistance. What's its Next Target?
If Bitcoin can hold above $45,000, we have a very good idea of where it's next target will be in the coming days/weeks.Dec 31, 2023
Are Investors Being Blinded By The Recent Parabolic Rally?
The recent parabolic rally is causing investors to ignore many historically reliable signs that an important top could very well be on the horizon.Dec 29, 2023
Watching Apple and Nvidia
AAPL & NVDA are testing very important resistance levels. Whether these stocks can break their resistance levels…or they rollover in a significant way…is going to be extremely important for how they act in Q1 of next year. It could/should be important for the broad market as well.Dec 28, 2023
The Action in the U.S. Dollar Should be VERY Important in Q1 2024
The dollar is oversold short-term & due for a bounce. However, longer-term, its July lows will be VERY important support (and it's not too far from those summer lows).Dec 27, 2023
The Russell 2000 holds the key for 2024
Whether the Russell 2000 can see more upside follow-through...or rolls back over...in Q1 of 2024 should be very important for the broad stock market for all of next year,Dec 21, 2023
Why Doesn't the "0dte" Options Issue Get Any Credit for Exacerbating the Rally?
0dte options exacerbated at least some of the big rally we've seen recently. But it works in both directions, so yesterday's decline could become commonplace if we get some negative developments.Dec 20, 2023
Parabolic Rallies Are Great While They Last, but.....
There are a lot of reasons to think the stock market can move higher going forward…maybe even substantially higher. However, we just think it’s important to consider the real situation we’re seeing right now. Let’s face it, when was the last time a parabolic rally ended well?Dec 19, 2023
China's Stock Market Stands at a Precarious Level
China’ stock market is actually down on the year. If it falls any further in 2024, it’s going to be VERY negative. It’s also going to signal that the global economy is going to face the kind of more serious headwinds that the U.S. stock market is not seeing right now.Dec 18, 2023
The Energy Sector Just Might Be A Surprising Outperformer in Q1 2024
WTI crude oil is bouncing off an important support level from an oversold condition. Thus, the energy stocks could surprise people in early 2024 if crude oil can rally much further.Dec 17, 2023
What Is The Fed Seeing On The Horizon...To Have Pivoted So Quickly On Rate Cuts???
The stock market continues to act fabulously. However, does the Fed really want to inflate another bubble by cutting rates? What are they really seeing on the horizon?Dec 15, 2023
GREAT Rally, But the Russell 2000 is Getting VERY Overbought Short-Term
The Russell 2000 (led by the regional banks) have had a GREAT run. However, they're both getting VERY overbought on a short-term basis. So be careful about chasing them near-term.Dec 14, 2023
Did Powell Just Give Investors a (further) Big Green Light?
Chairman Powell did not throw any cold water whatsoever on the recent narrative that says the Fed will cut rates in a meaningful way next year yesterday. Assuming this doesn’t mean the Fed is now worried about a recession; it has given investors the green light.Dec 13, 2023
Fed Day....But Also Keep An Eye On Gold
Like we thought it would, gold has pulled-back over the past two weeks. However, if it can bounce from a level above $1,950ish any time soon, it will raise the odds considerably that the yellow metal will finally break above its incredibly important long-term resistance level.Dec 12, 2023
The Regional Banks Could/Should be a Key Indicator Going Forward
The KRE regional bank ETF is testing a VERY important resistance level right now. However, it has also reached a very overbought condition. Whether this ETF can break above its summer highs…or rolls back over…will be very important for the broad stock market in the coming days/weeks.Dec 11, 2023