• Our concerns about high short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields…as well as the crisis in the Middle East…did indeed cause the stock market to decline in a material way.  These issues are not going away, so they will likely continue to create headwinds for the stock market.
  • Earnings are now moving to the forefront….Ignore the data about how many companies beat expectations (the majority of them ALWAYS do).  Instead, focus on the guidance.  Guidance is going to HAVE to be good enough to raise the consensus estimates in a material way for both 2024 & 2025…if the stock market is going to bounce back in significant fashion. 
  • The S&P 500 and the NDX 100 are both getting oversold on a short-term basis.  So, they could see short-term bounces at any time.  However, they’re intermediate-term charts indicate that we’ll likely see more weakness before we see an important bottom.


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