The developments of the past week mean we cannot avoid a recession.  At almost 18x earnings (& earnings forecasts set to fall even more), today's stock market has not come even close to pricing-in a recession (even if we avoid a banking crisis).

  • Why is Elon Musk so quiet?
  • Credit Suisse has something SVB did not…a big derivatives book.
  • Even if we avoid a banking crisis…and even if inflation comes down…we’re not going to be able to avoid a recession.  A recession will mean even lower earnings…and THAT means this expensive stock market needs to get a lot “less expensive.”
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