A Recession is very likely, but the market will fall further even if we don't fall into one.
Table of Contents:
1) The current de-risking/de-leveraging process still has a long way to go before it comes to an end.
2) However, a further short-term rally is still quite possible. (SPX, NDX, IWM, SMH charts.)
3) The bond market is getting overbought on a short-term basis. Don’t chase it here.
4) To reiterate, a reversal in LT interest rates is NOT bullish for stock in a bear market!
5) The Fed’s tightening policy is just starting to have an impact. Thus, no soft landing coming.
6) Crude oil is showing signs that a new rally leg could be dead ahead.
7) The housing stocks have had a nice run, but they’re due for a pullback.
8) Gold is overbought near-term, but it has a lot of upside potential intermediate-term.
8a) The dollar is oversold near-term. Will it signal an important bottom…or not?
9) The World Cup..…USC football..…Tiger Woods.
10) Summary of our current stance….A bear market is a process, not an event.