Last week's CPI number does not signal an upcoming significant drop in inflation. More importantly, a reversal in long-term interest rates...during a bear market...actually signals LOWER stock prices, NOT higher prices...because they signal a recession.

Table of Contents:

1)  Could this rally last a lot longer?  Key levels to watch.

2)  Inflation is still extremely high…and it’s not going to collapse.

3)  A mere mild decline in earnings next year will be very bearish for the stock market.

4)  When long-term rates roll-over in a bear market, it’s BEARISH for stocks.

5)  Politics…Neither party should be proud of their performance in the 2022 midterms..

6)  Summary of our current stance.

As I highlighted last weekend, I was scheduled for hip replacement surgery this past week...and I did indeed have that surgery.  Since I'm in recovery mode, this weekend's piece is going to be much shorter than usual.  I will return to the normal piece next weekend (and my regular "Morning Comment" will return next week as well).  Thank you very much.

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