Whether the situation in the Middle East escalates and spreads in a meaningful way will be extremely important for the markets forward. However, we cannot forget that a major divergence has developed between the bond and stock market. Therefore, if (repeat, IF) this new crisis does indeed spread, it’s going to leave the stock market much more vulnerable than usual. (A “flight to safety” trade is not going to take bond yields back down to their 2021 levels.)
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