It's Getting Close To The Time When The Piper Will Be Paid.
We're sorry, but you cannot unwind the massive corporate & market leverage that has built up due to "free money" over the past 15 years...with a just mild recession and a run-of-the-mill bear market.
Table of Contents:
1) If it was such a good week for earnings, why didn’t the stock market rally more?
2) Last week only emboldened our belief that an upcoming recession will not be a mild one.
3) The consumer remains strong, but there are a few cracks starting to show up.
4) There’s upside potential in the S&P 500 & NDX 100…not so much in the Russell 2000.
5) If the chip stocks fall below their recent lows, it’s going to be VERY negative (on several levels).
5a) That said, if the chip stocks can rally, the XLK just might break above a KEY resistance level.
6) The “H&S” pattern for Treasury yields is looking more compelling, so we’re bullish on Treasuries.
7) Less liquidity = lower asset prices in an expensive market.
8) The food/restaurant stocks are getting expensive…and VERY overbought (near-term).
9) Predictions for who will be (not who “should” be) the 2024 presidential nominees.
10) Summary of our current stance….Don’t fight the natural/normal cycles.