Table of Contents:

1) There are plenty of reasons to think that the stock market can continue to rally through this summer.

2) Excess liquidity has been a much bigger driver of the recent rally than most people realize.

3) The real reason why the big commodity rally of 2011 ended abruptly. (It’s all about liquidity.)

4) The NDX Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 should be due for “breathers,” but who knows now-a-days?

5) There are also plenty of reasons to think we are headed for a recession before the year is over.

6) Over the near-term, the SMH semiconductor ETF is starting to look a bit vulnerable.

7) The stocks of the PE firms are one group we’ll be watching to see if we’re wrong about our continued cautious stance.

8) The KRE regional bank ETF is testing key resistance.

9) Is the dollar set to roll-over?

10) Summary of our current stance…..If the liquidity flows reverse (or even slow) look out below.

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