More rough seas in 2023...and the S&P 500 could fall below 3,000 before it bottoms.
The process of taking the markets off artificial stimulus ("steroids") is far from over. It will continue to be a painful process and won't end until the markets are fully "normalized" (and trading on their own). That means more rough seas ahead in 2023.
Table of Contents:
1) Even if inflation falls dramatically, the stock market will decline further in 2023.
2) The stock market has NOT priced-in a recession yet…not even close.
2a) If you think ST rates will fall to 2%-3%, it’s a reason to be bearish, NOT bullish.
3) As the employment picture gets worse, consumer confidence will plumet.
4) Updating the charts on the SPX and NDX. (The NDX is close a CRITICAL support level.)
4a) A full list of the key support/resistance levels on the SPX and NDX going into 2023.
5) Long-term yields have seen a MAJOR change in trend this year!
6) Still bullish on energy (but getting a little nervous about it).
7) The DXY dollar Index stands at an extremely important inflection point.
8) Tech charts: XLK, SMH and AAPL. (AAPL should be the key one to watch.)
9) What is the weakness of the past month in South Korea’s KOSPI telling us?
10) Summary of our current stance…..The de-risking/de-leveraging “process” is far from over.