First the bond market, now the oil market. SOME markets ARE starting to price-in a recession. However, the stock market is still WAY too overvalued to say the same thing about the equity market. (This is especially true given that earnings estimates are going to come down much more quickly now.)

The developments of the past week mean we cannot avoid a recession. At almost 18x earnings (& earnings forecasts set to fall even more), today's stock market has not come even close to pricing-in a recession (even if we avoid a banking crisis).

Banks stocks had become EXTREMELY oversold yesterday, so a short-term bounce should help the broad market short-term. However, when the dust settles, earnings estimates will continue to decline. That's not good for an expensive stock market.

Despite the full bailout of the SVB depositors, the "Innovation Industry" is going to have to shrink considerably. This has a lot of implications for the economy...and for 2023 earnings estimates. Lower earnings + an expensive stock market = lower stock prices.