Whether it signals lower inflation OR higher odds of a recession…it will be bullish for the bond market either way…if (repeat, IF) it’s something that pushes the 10yr yield below 3.8% in any significant manner.

It is evident that the earnings growth from the AI phenomenon is not broadening out quickly. NOW, we learned that the earnings growth for the AI chip makers might fade.

The consumer discretionary stocks have lagged the S&P 500 during the bounce of the past few weeks.  Whether it can play catch-up or not going forward should be important.

The real history surrounding the “inverted yield curve” issue is finally getting some more attention around Wall Street.  So, it will be interesting to see how the markets react if/when the yield curve moves meaningfully back into positive territory.