The stock market continues to act quite well in January.  However, in the end, the fundamentals still matter...and bear markets don't end at expensive levels.  Therefore, investors need to be very careful in the weeks and months ahead.

Table of Contents:

1)  A meaningful break above 4,100 on the S&P 500 will be quite bullish.

2)  It will be a further decline in stocks that will actually cause the recession, not the other way around.

3)  “Bear market rallies” are what make bear markets so tough (and they happen when the market is still expensive).

4)  Is the consumer really still in great shape?  We’ll be watching the XLY consumer ETF for clues.

5)  Both the NDX 100 and Russell 2000 are testing incredibly important resistance levels.

6)  Despite a calm week, the 10-year yield stands at a key technical juncture.

7)  Chinese stocks are getting overbought.  Be careful about chasing them near-term.

8)  A very small crack is developing in the high yield market.

9)  The last thing DC wants if for a recession to get pushed out until 2024.

10)  Summary of our current stance……Don’t fight the Fed?...Don’t fight history either.

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