The Renewed Injections Of Emergency Liquidity Likely Won't Last Very Long This Time.
If the Fed does what it did in 2021...and keeps providing emergency levels of liquidity after the emergency passes...the stock market can rally a lot more this year. However, if they don't, the stock market is going to have a very tough time maintaining its current level...given that earnings estimates are about to fall through the floor...and thus today's valuation levels are still quite extreme.
Table of Contents:
1) A full-fledge banking crisis or not, we’re headed for a recession…and the stock market has not priced-in this reality.,
2) The real catalyst for this mini-crisis was the startups, NOT the banks. This is important to realize.
3) The real reasons the big-cap tech names have been outperforming…and why it’s important.
3a) Recessions are bearish for tech stocks (even though interest rates decline).
4) We’ll be watching the DJ Transports for signs of the impending recession.
5) The Fed is NOT going to return to a major accommodative stance.
6) Updated charts on the S&P 500, NDX Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000
7) The managements of the startups, the PE/VC firms, and the banks….ALL deserve PLENTY of blame.
8) On the bullish side of things, it’s amazing how many “bottoms” are made in March!
9) The SMH and XLK tech ETFs are close to breakout levels!
10) A very quick look at the charts on the bank ETF’s. (They’re quite oversold.)
11) An EXTREMELY quick look at the charts on WTI crude oil and the XLE. (They’re oversold too.)
12) Summary of our current stance.