The Stock Market Never "Looks Past" a Recession. It Always Prices-in the Recession Before It Bottoms.
The mini-banking crisis shows that the damage has already been done from the tightening cycle. A "pause" or a "pivot" is not going to prevent a recession.....Bear markets (that include recessions) never bottom until the S&P 500 becomes undervalued.
Table of Contents:
1) The damage has been done, so stop focusing on when the Fed might pause or pivot.
2) When interest rates decline as we head into a recession, it’s bearish for stocks, not bullish.
3) The only thing holding up the stock market is liquidity. How long will those spigots remain open?
4) The tech stocks should be a good indicator about whether the liquidity spigots remain wide open or not.
5) Updated charts on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000. (Possible H&S pattern on the SPX?)
6) Will the min-banking crisis hurt consumer confidence? (We’ll be watching the XRT & XLY for clues.)
7) The Transports (& rails) should be another key indicator for future economic growth.
8) Ditto for high yield spreads and default rates.
9) The Fed deserves plenty of blame, but not all of it. (Today’s situation was quite predictable.)
10) Summary of our current stance.