Treasury Yields...and Not a Gov't Shutdown...is the Biggest Threat to the Stock Market
- The potential government shutdown did not provide much of a catalyst for the recent decline in the stock market, so it’s not a surprise that this weekend’s agreement out of Washington is not helping markets this morning.
- It’s funny how the issue of “gamma” gets the blame for stock market declines sometimes, but never gets any credit for market advances. It does work in both directions.
- The Treasury market is oversold in terms of price (& thus overbought in terms of yield). However, a short-term decline in yields down to 4.4% or 4.3% is probably not going to help the stock market for very long…as it will still leave yields very high on a longer-term basis.
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