Credit Contractions = Slower Growth...Thus, Look For Some Headwinds in the Second Half
Just a reminder for new readers, we always like to provide issues from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend, but we still try to make it well known which side of that ledger we stand at any given time. In other words, we think it’s important to touch on issues from both sides, but we still make it quite evident where we stand in the end. Thank you and enjoy the holiday weekend (for those of us here in the U.S.)!
Table of Contents:
1) There are certainly reasons to think that the 2nd half of the year will be good for stocks as well.
2) Our economist, Paul Shea: “A recession is very unlikely, unless the Fed Blunders.”
3) Merely avoiding an “earnings apocalypse” won’t be enough anymore. We’ll need actual earnings improvement.
4) Contractions in credit = slower growth. It’s amazing how this is not a key narrative on Wall Street right now.
5) Multiple expansion is going to be tough to maintain with interest rates rising again.
6) Party like it’s 2019/2020 all over again?
7) Review of the charts on the S&P 500, the NDX 100 and the Russell 2000.
8) The XRT retail ETF is testing KEY resistance. (Just how strong IS the consumer?)
9) Geez, do you think the Supreme Court will be a big issue in 2024?
10) Summary of our current stance.